Why the unemployment stats are baloney

The monthly unemployment stats were released this week.  Unemployment has gone up and the economy seems to be stagnating. 

One thing gets my goat about these figures. I read a lot of lazy journalism with such a shallow understanding of the employment situation in this country that it is meaningless.  The unemployment figures are therefore just a load of old baloney and commentaries are pants.

Then I read a great New Statesman post on Wednesday that explains what the situation is and quantifies it.  It is perfectly understandable and not over long - read it here.

The key points are these:

• Unemployment in the UK is 2.49m or 7.9%

• There are also 1.26m involuntary part-time workers.  These are part-time workers who want/need a full time jobs but cannot find one.  They represent 16% of the UK's 7.9m part-time workers. The number of involuntary part-timers has increased by 17% over 12 months. 

• There are 601k temporary workers who could not find a permanent job (as opposed to those who did not want one) This is an increase of 5.8 % over 12 months. They represent 37 % of the UK's 1.6m temporary workers. category.

 

Also women and young people are being particularly badly affected by unemployment at the moment.

Female unemployment is 1.05m.  Youth unemployment is 949k.

Women make up 65 % of the public sector workforce, so are being hit hardest just now by public sector cuts.  Women bore the brunt of redundancies with 69,000 made redundant over the last three months, this is up 41.5 % over 12 months.  (Though presumably men bore a heavier burden during the first part of the recession in 2008 onwards when the private sector was hit hardest)

There is a real crisis of youth unemployment.  The unemployment rate for 16-24 year olds not in full-time education is 18.8 %.  There is a risk that it will rise further as Scottish Higher and A-level students enter the labour market for the first time - and many fail to get into university as many are oversubscribed in the rush to gain places ahead of the introduction of fees in England and Wales.

To understand unemployment in a time of stagnation you also need to understand under employment - ie all the people doing part time work or temporary contracts because full time work is not there.

If you take these together this means 4.351m people are unemployed or under employed at the moment.  And this is without taking account of anyone who has replaced a well paid job with a much lower paid job.

(ie Middle managers or professionals who now find themselves working in a supermarket, doing a much smaller and lower paid job for a small company or have started up as self employed after losing a job and are not earning much.)  This category is difficult to quantify but if we could it would probably take the unemployed and underemployed category over 5 million!!!

This is the true size of unemployment.

And the crisis in youth unemployment and the challenges for many women are the key themes.

PS
This is without addressing the issues of the long term unemployed, regional variations around the UK or any disproportionate affects on particular industries. 

Be awkward, be courteous, be accurate...

I have just spent a very entertaining hour listening to Tam Dalyell – veteran Labour politician and asker of the West Lothian question.  He treated his attentive audience to a romp through conspiracy theories and remembrances of Prime Ministers past.  

Tam came over this evening as caring passionately about his country – both Scotland and the United Kingdom, and caring passionately about the institution of parliament and the democratic process. 

He has made a career out of being his own man and a thorn in the side of the establishment as he holds them to book for standards of integrity.

Dalyell is polite, his mind is sharp and he is blunt and clinical in the conclusions he draws.  Among these stark comments he made the following bold assertions tonight. 

• Scotland is on a motorway to independence with no exits.
• Tony Blair is by far the worst Prime Minister of Tam’s political life and lied about commitments he made to George Bush.
• Michael Foot would have made a rather good Prime Minister.
•  Mrs Thatcher lied to scupper a peace deal to allow her to press on with the Falklands war.
• Al Megrahi is innocent of the Lockerbie Pan Am bombing and Britain complicit in a cover up.

He was speaking at the Edinburgh Book Festival having recently published his memoirs.  He was affably and skilfully interviewed by James Naughtie of Radio 4’s Today programme for the hour long session in front of a rapt audience.  Naughtie carefully drew out all the good bits without allowing the evening to get bogged down on any one topic.

Tam’s eyes lit up like a little boy when he can enter into the detail of documentation, timing and the paper trail of evidence that exposes the great and the good.  Dalyell’s style is to be polite, dignified and with a clinical relentlessness as he chases his pray.  Never confrontational or aggressive Tam has entitled his autobiography the Importance of Being Awkward.

Baited by Naughtie on his relationship with Mrs Thatcher, Dalyell insisted there was never any enmity between them, merely that he was always polite and accurate in his questioning.

Indeed, Dalyell seeks a certain straight line logic in his pursuit of the truth, missing perhaps a greater truth sometimes.

What do I mean by this?

Does it matter that Mrs Thatcher avoided going down a road marked Peruvian peace deal?  She knew that that was probably a distraction and the war needed to be won and the Belgrano removed as a threat irrespective of its exact position or direction of travel at any one time.

Similarly is it really that significant that Tony Blair had probably made detailed undertakings to support Bush in Iraq when they met in Texas?  Now, I thought then as I think now that going to war in Iraq was wrong – both politically and morally.  However, it seems to me that on a matter such as this it is perfectably understandable that a Prime Minister would take a view and that is the direction in which he leads!  

Far more interesting was the idea that the modern British Prime Ministers have no military experience and are far looser with sending troops into action than previous generations who have served in combat.  

  

Tam also spoke a little of Lockerbie, a case riddled with conspiracy that he has investigated over the years.  He is adamant that Megrahi is innocent and he believes that Abu Nidal and the Peoples Front for the Liberation of Palestine are responsible – presumably with a connection to Iran. He states that $10million was deposited in the PFLP bank account 2 days after Lockerbie in December 1988!

Dalyell was not adamant about everything.  He says he was wrong to support Michael Foot for leadership of the Labour Party and that he should have supported Dennis Healey.  Paradoxically he said Foot would have made a good Prime Minister based on his ability to delegate effectively!

Perhaps one of the most interesting questions to an audience in Edinburgh in 2011 was Tam Dalyell’s attitude to Scottish devolution.  He said his view was the same in 2011 as it had been in 1978. Devolution once given inevitably will lead to Independence.  This is because parliaments always want to gather power for themselves.  He feels this is a bad thing.  Strangely I thought he is strongly a fan of the EU but does not seem to carry his views to the logical conclusion that Europe will want more power and will seek to take them from the UK.  In this regard I don’t think Tam is right on the inevitability of anything.

He raised another interesting point – what happens when England says no?  He meant England will lose patience as Scotland unpicks the union – even in trivial ways – and will accelerate independence for us.  But equally England could say no to many of the Devo Max solutions which involve ‘sharing’ sovereignty with Scotland.

Undoubtedly Tam Dalyell is a man of enormous integrity and great intellectual energy.  A real big beast and character of Scottish politics, but enagaging as he is, I don’t remember him ever being truly that influential and I think there are all sorts of little holes in his thinking.

Tam finished by quoting Harold MacMillan, who he had a very high regard for.  Tam was interested in ‘events dear boy, events’.  Perhaps this is the truth. He is happiest exposing some indiscretion or inconsistency around a major event rather than solving the problem and dealing with a complex situation.

David Cameron’s not had a good week!

Dave has not had a good week.  At this moment of crisis for the country I feel he has come up rather short.  His handling of the crisis from the start has been far from sure footed.  This started with his initially slow reaction from holiday, through responses which seem a little knee jerk and have ended in an unconvincing tone not quite connecting with the people.

There has been no ‘People’s Princess’ moment or set-piece like ‘Thatch’ the Leaderine, scarves flowing in a tank like a latter day Boudicca.  Even Gordon Brown – brilliant yet dysfunctional - had something of the ‘cometh the man, cometh the hour’ about him when he bounded around the G20 stage in London, leading the world in its moment of financial crisis.

I do however have some sympathy with Dave over the Big Society (whispers – am I allowed to admit that).

The idea was to transfer power from central government to local government, support co-ops and mutuals, provide more open and transparent ground and encourage active involvement in communities.

As a Liberal I think that is all good.

As a Liberal I want to balance the values of liberty, equality and community.  I want to intervene where we need to, to allow this.  For me this means dispersing power and fostering creativity.  As a Liberal I see the role of the state being to enable and to allow people to take part in the decisions that affect their lives – not control them!!

So the Big Society concept is a good thing.  It is the basis on which the LibDems and the progressive Conservatives can do business (and remember – it is a business arrangement!)

But the problem is, the Big Society itself has been rather nebulous and I don’t think the Conservatives get it anyway.  So it withers on the Tory vine.

I believe there has always been much more to it than a front for cuts – socialists don’t get that!

A rotten time for Dave though to try to introduce such an idea when he is having to introduce deep public sector cuts to see off the sovereign debt crisis!

So, even though there is something of the school bully about Dave there is something quite interesting trying to get out.

That’s another reason why it has not been a good week for him.

He has pleased the right wing and the Daily Fail by wittering on about banning social media (the thin edge of an extremely dangerous wedge), toying with bringing the army onto the streets (wouldn’t work, ask the people of Northern Ireland) and generally talking tough (upsetting the police authorities as he went).

It has been a bit knee jerk and I think Dave is going back to the right wing core and leaving considered Dave - who has a feel for the breaks in our society - behind.   

Considered Dave, potentially, has it in him to lead at a time we need to stand back and act effectively.  Right wing Dave can’t.

It is a cliché, but we need to be tough on crime and tough on the causes of crime.  I know – this turned out to be an empty phrase you say.  But it doesn’t mean it isn’t what we should be doing.

Our government needs to engage the problems unearthed by the rioting with emotional intelligence.

We should take advice! And that includes taking advice and input from Americans who have some comparable experiences.  We can also get advice closer to home.  The Liverpool Matrix project apparently has some valuable lessons and Strathclyde Police have a great track record of dealing with gangs and youth violence and civil disorder.

Indeed, we need to understand why the cities of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland stayed calm. How did the great conurbations of Yorkshire and the North-East stay out of trouble?  And why were there no problems in Southampton, Portsmouth and Brighton?

I don’t know what the answer is but I have been mightily impressed by the credibility of those calling for the whole community to be involved in the solution to our social problems.

This is about getting close to the people and working with them.  I read that where city authorities have been successful at dealing with problems they have involved the council, schools, local health and social professionals, community and outreach workers and the police.

They have sought to understand, relate and communicate with people.  And, at the same time, emotional intelligence is about assertively drawing some clear lines about what is acceptable and where the lines are!

As well as getting close to individuals and communities we need to be tough on gang culture and bad things that come with it – the casual violence, the lack of respect for people and property, sexism, bullying and extreme homophobia.

This emotional intelligence and holistic approach seems to be at the foot of why things worked in Strathclyde – maybe it can work for Dave?    

Jupiter Artland - a hidden gem

I had not heard of Jupiter Artland until a couple of weeks ago.  It is a sculpture park set in the grounds of Bonnington House at Wilkieston just outside Edinburgh.

The result is really rather stunning and thought provoking, the works of art fusing effortlessly with the environment.

Part parkland, part woodland, this perfectly formed space enjoys spectacular views over West Lothian.  North to the hills and the unmistakable silhouettes of the Forth Bridges, south-east to the Pentland Hills and all around rolling farmland.  The house itself is also very handsome.  The setting and the views are in fact amongst several surprises as West Lothian is not often thought of as a beautiful county.

The Wilsons, who own Bonnington House, have spent several years putting together a collection inspired by the landscape and the environment, with spectacular results.

The visitor walks through a trail finding surprising and striking creations in first one clearing, then another.  Sometimes abstract, sometimes almost realistic but always with a twist and a thought.  The park features many works and several working artists.  Some have been made in residence at Jupiter Artland while other pieces have been brought in.  However, they are always constructed to meld into the park almost organically.

As one artist put it, it was important to see the land in the round, to see Artland as a concept rather than simply 'a parking lot for exhibits'.  I liked that description.

The visitor must pick their own highlights but I was taken with a caged vortex, 5 rather sinister weeping girls and the massive spiral earth mounds musing on the cycle of life and the cell as an essential building block of creation.

I described this as a hidden gem because I was not aware of Jupiter Artland before and it is visually striking, beautifully presented with excellent facilities and provocative.   It is an essential visit around Edinburgh whether you are an art fan or not.

Have a look at their website if you want to see more...
http://www.jupiterartland.org/

David Starkey digs a hole!

David Starkey digs a hole for himself and keeps digging!

As one of the comments says, "Starkey is like Enoch Powell - an educated bigot!"

 

Police and thieves in the streets

Police and thieves in the streets, so goes the lyrics of the Clash song!  In many ways 2011 seems like a re-run of 1981 to me.  Royal wedding, mass unemployment and riots in English inner cities.  Or is it?

I read an excellent blog earlier this week from Dave Hill in the Guardian.  He pointed out that the riots produced a predictable polarisation of views.  The right condemn criminality, give uncritical support to the police and show a contempt for diagnosing the events in reference to any wider social and economic context.

The left give an insistence that the events must be understood with reference to a social and economic context, whisper darkly about historic tensions with the Met and draw causal links with current government policies such as public sector cuts and the removal of the EMA (Education Maintenance Allowance).

What struck me was how these riots, although sparked by tensions in Tottenham over a young man shot by police in controversial circumstances, became a semi orchestrated series of looting sprees and serious outbreaks of civil disorder.  At the root was organised theft of training shoes, HD TVs, Mac Books and Jewellery. 

There seems little causal link with government policies or a general malaise in society.

This is different from 1981 where general alienation caused a wave of serious mass riots in a series of English cities.

While there seems to be a whole matrix of reasons driving this disorder what really seems to be driving it is gang culture and hatred of the police.  If we are to listen to the interviews with the rioters, or read their texts, or even their tweets it is all about getting 'dem feds' and comes with some real vitriol.  I also read about gangs in London in particular making schools tough places to maintain any authority, or leaving social workers in fear or even policemen.

The point is this issue has been there for a long time through this government and the last, through global economic meltdown and through boom time.  The links of causation as a protest against the government just aren't there.

Interestingly Diane Abbot seemed to think relations with the police while imperfect had improved in recent years.  Nevertheless, gang culture and kicking out at authority, the police in particular, seem sensible choices for some of the causes of the chaos.  I'm sure alienation, including economic alienation is part of this and there is plenty of evidence that civil disorder increases in periods of austerity.

Its just that there hasn't been enough time for things this government is doing to work through the system to a large degree.  This is a breakdown which has been there for some time.

The polarised name calling helps no one.  The predictable trotting out of second rate socialist theory is self righteous and boring and was lined up before anything happened.  We need a little time to stand back and understand the reasons for all of this in each city.

A lot of the solutions will come from the street workers and outreach teams getting their hands dirty with the people involved.

Then Tony Blair's catch phrase actually isn't that far off what we need to do - be 'tough on crime and tough on the causes of crime'

But lets not fool ourselves, a lot of what happened this week was a load of scallies getting free stuff!

Malta

I have just returned from holidaying in Malta.  This isn't a travelogue and I'm not Judith Chalmers but this blog is about stuff as well as politics so I thought I would write a few lines about my hols before getting back into blogging proper.

I thoroughly enjoyed Malta though I don't suppose it will be everyone's cup of tea.

It is an island (or two islands counting Gozo) in the Med.  It was eerie flying into it over Sicily knowing that if we kept going for a couple of hundred miles or so we would end up in Tripoli!

Everyone speaks English as the Island was sort of looked after by Britain from 1800 until 1964.  Maltese itself is a language that is 70% Arabic.  They also all speak Italian as they are only 60 miles off Sicily and receive Italian telly.

The island is almost one big city with astro turf 5-a side footy pitches squeezed into every spare space.  The sea around it is the most fabulous blue and a mecca for divers and snorklers.

The city of Valetta is fabulous and spectacular.  A magnificent citadel dominating an enormous natural harbour.  The castles, churches and palaces are breathtaking as is the skyline - an almost perfectly preserved baroque city.  I think if Valetta were in Spain, Italy or France it would be world famous.

Perhaps my lasting impression is the history.  Being a history geek I was very taken with it.  You see Malta has seen a lot of action and quite a few things of genuine importance have happened there over many many centuries!  Malta has experienced domination after domination.  The Parthians, Romans, Arabs, Normans, Spanish, Ottomans, the Knights of St John, the French and the British have all dominated - some more benignly than others.  Along the way the apostle Paul was shipwrecked there.  Each group has left its mark on the architecture, agriculture, language and culture of this island at the cross roads of the Mediterranean.

The defining moment of Maltese history is probably the great siege of 1576 at the heart of the history of Reformation Europe.  The forces of Suleiman the Magnificent, the great Ottoman sultan, were pitted against the Knights of St John - a bunch of stateless knights and sorta proto crusaders who had been kicked out of Rhodes by the Ottomans a few years before. The Knights of St John are probably the key group in Malta's history and at this stage were right on the front line of the great geo-political fault-line of the early modern world.

Going to the interactive son et lumiere dramatisation of history you get on holiday these days (whatever happened to drab days and a tea room in a stately home with a roped off four poster and a likely tale of Charles II on the run) I was expecting to find the Ottomans were the baddies and the Knights the goodies.

In truth that wasn't what I found.  True the Ottomans got stuck in and took a lot of innocent people into slavery.  But the Ottomans had been harassed by the Knights of St John for years in the Aegean.  Then, they gave them free passage to Malta.  But the Knights continued to harass Ottoman shipping and interests from their base in Malta.  When the Ottomans attacked Malta, it was to remove a thorn in their side as much as it was for territory and power.

The moral of the story is to see both sides.  Things are rarely as simple as they seem and somewhere in there is a lesson to be applied to some of the tensions between and with the Arab world today.