tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2108135852133688702024-02-26T07:03:14.845+00:00The view from the hills...of life, politics and other stuffGHmltnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08420475365803049630noreply@blogger.comBlogger83125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-210813585213368870.post-22075729735068178132016-12-05T22:19:00.000+00:002016-12-05T22:19:27.737+00:00Stick that in your pitch-fork and smoke it!<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Last week saw a remarkable British by-election where the Liberal Democrats over turned a 23,000 majority and their previous near death experience to win a spectacular victory in Richmond Park.<br />
<br />
The dominant issue was Brexit and the continuing fall out from Britain’s EU Referendum and a summer of political trauma. The Liberal Democrats remain Britain’s most consistently pro EU political party and have campaigned passionately in support of the EU both before and after the referendum. They are currently campaigning for parliament to scrutinise the Brexit proposition as it emerges and for there to be a second referendum to ratify any deal on the grounds that the terms of what Brexit meant were never specified in the original referendum.<br />
<br />
This has been challenged as controversial and potentially undemocratic by leading political inquisitors such as Andrew Neil and the pitchfork wielding Julia Hartley-Brewer.<br />
<br />
Are the peasants revolting? Is it the alt-right establishment twitching in defence of a tyranny of the majority? Is it simply that parliament was silent on how Brexit would proceed should we vote to leave, either in terms of process or vision?<br />
<br />
I think the issue about a second vote is therefore about having a vote on any future Brexit deal. There are so many moving parts to consider. This is not just be about single market or not - or even whether we have access to the single market in some form. How much do we pay in; what control can we exert over immigration; what level of political control do we exercise over our national destiny; what other areas of inter-European co-operation are we to participate in going forward and on what terms? It is about all these things and more and we are only at the beginning. <br />
<br />
My current preference would be to find, after exploring the Brexit options, that being part of the EU on the sort of terms we already had was the best deal and that we therefore exercise the option of staying. Failing that, I’d like us to establish as close a cooperative and connected relationship with rest of Europe as possible. Whatever we do I’d like to do it with our eyes open.<br />
<br />
Whatever we decide, it has to be done democratically since we have had a referendum. We voted to leave and we are proceeding with that. For there to be any deviation from that or significant qualification after seeing the options, there needs to be a democratic process.<br />
<br />
The problem the Leavers have, in my opinion, is that this was always a referendum to deal with an issue that has split the Conservative Party for a generation. It's not really been done with any vision about where we are trying to get to, let alone any detailed proposition behind it. And then the leaders of Leave seemed to step back and run away when they won. Now that’s a bit of a school-boy error from them. <br />
<br />
In fact, we are seeing this right now in the Supreme Court. The legislation around creating the referendum was poor and was silent on too much.<br />
<br />
The referendum means we have decided to leave and that has to be delivered now. And this has to be delivered through parliamentary processes with proper scrutiny. Politics does not stop with a referendum and certainly not one where the population is so evenly split.<br />
<br />
What Richmond Park does is to remind us is there are significant numbers of Remain minded people and some of their concerns need taken account of as we move forward to our new foreign policy. It is important to avoid a tyranny of the majority.<br />
<br />
It also gives voice to a significant liberal - progressive section of our electorate - a section feeling under-represented with the void in the centre and centre-left of British politics. This is a section of our people that look to politics that is open, tolerant and united. A section that looks to a very long tradition of British liberalism that we need now more than ever.<br />
<br />
Stick that in your pitch-fork and smoke it.<br />
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<span style="background-color: #1da1f2; color: white; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 12px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span>GHmltnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08420475365803049630noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-210813585213368870.post-3253765611570173352016-07-01T03:15:00.004+01:002016-07-01T03:20:18.784+01:00Let's bring down our whole rotten political system<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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While I'm interested in any Scottish solutions with regards to stopping an EU Brexit I think they
are a distraction from the priority. The Scottish dimension is not really about Europe it is about Independence. For the Scottish Government see everything - absolutely everything - through the prism of Independence. For me the priority is for Britain to remain within or as close we can to the EU; and to be clear, for me, the EU has always been
far more than just a free trade area.<br />
<br />
There can't be a Second Referendum on the EU. That would be undemocratic and we cannot call for
one when we rightly call out Scot Nats for demanding Indyref2 barely two
years after the first - and a clear decision to boot.<br />
<br />
But referenda are not the only way. They are not even particularly good
at deciding very technical issues like on the EU. And they are so final if
the change option wins. This makes them inflexible and somewhat undemocratic
in that sense. As a result of last week's EU referendum we have handed a blank cheque to I'm not entirely sure who, to do I'm not
entirely sure what.<br />
<br />
When we voted we had no idea what Leave would look like. There was no white paper,
no model, no roadmap - nothing.
And this is without addressing the apparent fact that two of the central
claims of the winning Leave campaign appear to be ones that there was no intention, or knowingly no
possibility, of delivering. That is to say paying '£350m a week into NHS' and ending
free movement of people.
This is also without addressing that some (not all) Leave voters were
voting on misconceptions as evidenced by attitude surveys during the
campaign.<br />
<br />
I want us to stay in the EU or salvage the best we can out of our broken relationship with Europe and vote on it in the traditional
way via a general election. That's perfectly democratic. Now this requires real Labour to have the balls to stand up for that. It
also requires pro EU Conservatives to stop trying to hold power for power's sake. The pro EU ones are meant to be in the
majority in parliament.
This may all require pro EU candidates and groups to cooperate in a one-off
pro-EU coupon election.<br />
<br />
But failing all this I want the Labour Party to be strong again - they need
to jettison their foolish People's Popular Front sect of malevolents and
romantics.
In the Conservatives I want to see the Brexiters and thinly veiled anti-Europeans (such as
May) defeated and something constructive regarding
Europe emerge.
Most of all I feel we need outward looking British liberalism to start
doing well across all the parties again.<br />
<br />
Crucially, I want to see the Liberal
Democrats, who have taken a far heavier electoral toll
than they ever deserved, returning to strength. We desperately need them in our political mix with a loud and vibrant voice.<br />
<br />
These are turbulent times in British politics and all this may not be possible. The stable of contenders for the Conservative leadership does not fill me with hope. Our continuing creaking democracy based on an 18th century system never designed for party politics let alone the multiple and changing choices we have today continues to depress me. Not least when it begins to threaten our stability with embedded tribal loyalties and exaggerated regional differences with their ludicrous over representations. This is an unresponsive democracy whose senses to real opinion are dulled, especially when they deliver absolute majorities on not much more than a third of the vote and on tiny shifts in support.<br />
<br />
But there is many a twist and turn in the road ahead before we are done with these turbulent times. Whatever happens I do not want to see a return to our political system as we have known it. The realignment of the 1980s did not quite come off. This time the fault lines of opinion have truly shifted.<br />
<br />
This time I want to see real realignment and with it an end to our whole rotten political system.GHmltnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08420475365803049630noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-210813585213368870.post-40573849070660331672016-06-19T16:21:00.001+01:002016-06-19T16:53:34.798+01:00We need Britiah liberalism now more than everOn 8 May 2015 Nick Clegg made a powerful speech resigning his leadership of the Liberal Democrats. He spoke of how we need British liberalism now more than ever. I believe the events of the last days of this EU referendum campaign show that to be true. I'm speaking of a liberalism that goes across several parties and across people of none, but the Liberal Democrats, of which I am a member, are a key part of bringing that to the fore. A key passage of that speech was particularly relevant. I thought I would paraphrase the argument in the context of today.<br />
<br />
Liberalism is not faring well against the politics of fear. Years of
hardship after the recession and insecurities in the face of
globalisation have led to people reaching out for new certainties. The politics of identity, of nationalism, of us versus them are on the rise. It is to be hoped that our leaders realise that this brings us to a point where grievance and fear threaten to combine to drive different communities apart. We must be aware of the potentially
disastrous consequences to our way of life and the threat to the
integrity of our United Kingdom, if we continue to appeal to grievance
rather than generosity and fear rather than hope. It's no exaggeration
to say that in the absence of strong and statesmanlike leadership,
Britain's place in Europe and the world, and the continued existence of
our United Kingdom itself is in jeopardy. And the cruelest irony is that
it is exactly at this time that British liberalism, that noble
tradition that believes we are stronger together and weaker apart, is
more needed now than ever before. There is no path to a fairer, greener,
freer Britain without British liberalism showing the way.<br />
<br />
<br />
You can view the full speech here: <br />
<br />
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<br />GHmltnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08420475365803049630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-210813585213368870.post-59128804282841779682016-06-19T15:44:00.000+01:002016-06-19T15:52:03.801+01:00EU - let's remember the good things too<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZehrtl0s0IqljuNFBVaHUpsVWmcJotd91EoUIykpxTO2o6QUKs_MU89wkCEPCUq5XMaUoddtiix_yLWDibWl3NiLnBkH5UWhY5DK-3bqe3wwjAWkD1sD9R7bTJVlSZYRIxSUjRLXaL98/s1600/EU.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="176" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZehrtl0s0IqljuNFBVaHUpsVWmcJotd91EoUIykpxTO2o6QUKs_MU89wkCEPCUq5XMaUoddtiix_yLWDibWl3NiLnBkH5UWhY5DK-3bqe3wwjAWkD1sD9R7bTJVlSZYRIxSUjRLXaL98/s320/EU.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
Over the last few of days I have spoken to a couple of people who, while previously sitting on the fence, have decided to vote for Britain to remain in the EU. In each case they have expressed a general cynicism about Europe but have decided on balance it is better for Britain to be In rather than Out, principally because of the economic case.<br />
<br />
I think we can do better than that. I think it's important to remember the good things about the EU too.<br />
<br />
I think it's important to remember good things like: being a key part of
the permanent structure of peace post WW2; cross border cooperation on crime and climate
change; scientific and cultural exchange; and technological and
business openess - in addition to the single market.<br />
<br />
There is an important
place for a close knit supra-national community of nations -
particularly in Europe with our history.GHmltnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08420475365803049630noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-210813585213368870.post-31596677179484886982015-08-12T18:37:00.000+01:002015-08-12T18:42:29.157+01:00General Election 2015 - what really happened?<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
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mso-para-margin-left:0cm;
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<![endif]-->
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<div class="MsoNormal">
It is now just over three months since the General Election
result and the political landscape has been transformed.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>From a position of a virtual dead heat the
Conservatives are now the dominant force in British politics with no serious
opposition, the Labour Party are disintegrating, the LibDems have been reduced
to a pile of rubble, no-one quite knows where UKIP are, and Scotland is virtually
a one party state.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In these last few months I have had time to read a lot,
think about what has happened and look at the stats.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Not least, I have had a look at some of the
things the British Election Study has identified about the motivations of the
electorate.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Before the myths and legends
of election 2015 take root I wanted to jot down a few things I believe to be true
in understanding the drivers for the electorate at this election and where I
think our politics are at.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
A crucial thing to understand about General Election 2015 is
that the Conservative Party did not see a significant increase in their support
and there was not a return to 2 party politics.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Nor was there a significant reduction in Labour support from 2010 over
the country as a whole.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The key dynamics were in fact the disintegration of LibDem
support, the SNP landslide in Scotland and a large anti politics UKIP vote,
although to negligible electoral effect. The Greens also had a larger vote than
in previous elections, although less than they might have hoped.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Source: Electoralcalculus</div>
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<br /></div>
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The Labour result was in fact a disaster saved only by
defecting Liberal Democrats. This was made worse by the realisation that they
were the opposition to not altogether popular government after five years of
austerity in a financial crisis struck world.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
One of the main features of election 2015 was the SNP tidal
wave in Scotland where they won nearly all the seats and 50% of the vote.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The 2010 Labour voters who went over to the SNP
were the most concerned by cuts in public spending, the least convinced about the
need for deficit reduction, and felt that if we did have to address public
spending it needed to be by tax rises and not cuts.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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For left of centre inclined voters, the most effective thing
to do in terms of electoral positioning was to be apparently centrist,
anti-austerity, and economically competent.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>This worked well for the SNP.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For
Labour on the other hand, having a position which seemed to be austerity-lite
did not work.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They probably needed to
appear anti-austerity while economically competent to be more successful. </div>
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<br /></div>
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In Scotland, Labour particularly lost out on not seeming
anti austerity enough and the nationalist / anti politics sentiment grew.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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A paradox in Scotland that sealed the SNP rout of unionist
parties was that a segment of Independence Referendum No voters voted SNP to
take their popular vote to an unprecedented 50%.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This crucial group were partly looking for an anti-austerity proposal and were particularly beguiled by the prospect of a Labour minority administration given what they perceived as back-bone by the SNP. A smaller group were disappointed
as they perceived there were not enough new powers for Scotland on offer when
in fact significant powers had been brought forward and precisely according to
the timetable promised.</div>
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<br />
In the election campaign there were a mass of contradictory
claims, seemingly badly costed, confusing and complex.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Therefore, it was impossible to discern what the
best deal was.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When the voting public is
hit by conflicting claims of an unclear message they fall back on other simpler
things to make up their minds. This means their view on the party leaders.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This was crucial.</div>
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<br /></div>
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The view of party leaders in comparison with Ed Miliband
helped David Cameron.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It was also
another factor which helped the SNP. </div>
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<br /></div>
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What the LibDems were offering or what they were even for
had become unclear and people had stopped listening to their leader some time
before election.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Greens fell back from a promising pre-election position
because of this compounded by credibility of economic competence which
unravelled somewhat for them during the campaign.</div>
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<br /></div>
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The Conservatives stuck very narrowly to a mantra of having
a long term economic plan.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Economic
competence, at least in contrast to Labour and their leader being relatively
well thought of, again in comparison with Labour helped the Conservatives
maintain and very slightly increase their 2010 support.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While this was not that impressive given 2010
was a disappointing result for the Conservatives as they failed to gain a
majority after 13 years of Labour and an economic crisis, it was impressive
given the rise of UKIP collecting anti politics support to their right.</div>
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<br /></div>
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The Conservatives were able to tactically cannibalise LibDem
seats and squeeze enough LibDem voters and UKIP voters in key seats to win a
majority under our First past the Post system.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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The British Election Study found limited evidence of a fear
of a Labour-SNP coalition driving votes to them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, both the Conservatives – who operated
some very sophisticated voter modelling – and the LibDems found movement at the
end of the campaign in LibDem seats to the Conservatives on this very fear
tipping key seats into the Conservative column and ensuring the LibDem
meltdown.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Interestingly, the Conservatives had some success moving
UKIP supporters their way in key seats.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>This did not happen in the north where UKIP were Labour facing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, this meant that while UKIP did well
they only won one seat even though nearly 4 million voted for them.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
So in short, an election where Labour lost on perception of
economic competence and their leader but also for positioning themselves as
austerity lite.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>An election where the
Conservatives won no ringing endorsement but won a majority under our system by
a narrow message of competence or at least having a plan and a very effective
tactical squeeze of LibDems and UKIPers in key seats.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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But overall an election where the key dynamics were actually
the destruction of the LibDems and the irresistible rise of the SNP.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I leave you with a question.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Is there a parallel between Scottish Nationalists and the Irish
Nationalists of 1874 who came from nowhere to get 60 seats and it never went
back? </div>
GHmltnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08420475365803049630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-210813585213368870.post-5501995114547155742015-07-07T02:37:00.001+01:002015-07-07T02:40:46.837+01:00The SNP's double paradox<ol class="stream-items js-navigable-stream" id="stream-items-id"><div class="TweetTextSize TweetTextSize--16px js-tweet-text tweet-text" data-aria-label-part="0" lang="en">
It has been interesting to see those celebrating the Greek vote on their financial crisis are a mixture of various nationalists, and the hard left and Greens.</div>
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This highlights a paradox as far as the SNP are concerned.</div>
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The SNP are not a hard left party and their anti-austerity line has been no different than social democrats'. In fact their anti-austerity line has been more talk than action. </div>
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There is also a paradox with regards to Europe. As nationalists maybe their belief in Europe is more convenience than conviction. The thinking of many of the supporters of the SNP is muddled at least.</div>
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GHmltnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08420475365803049630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-210813585213368870.post-56437272804481146032015-07-07T02:23:00.001+01:002015-07-07T02:23:23.968+01:00EVEL is a terrible ideaMy gut instinct is that David Cameron is foolish on devolution and that EVEL (English Votes for English laws) is a terrible idea.<br />
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Ever since he made that ill judged speech on the morning of 19 September 2014 he has been playing fast and loose with Britain. I like devolution. I think decentralisation is good and that Britain is particularly well suited to it. It is the natural order of things.<br />
<br />
Indeed the natural conclusion of all this is devolution in some shape or form throughout the UK with Westminster becoming the national parliament. The federal parliament if you like.<br />
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Some sort of devolution or decentralisation within England would be best for this to work and to be sustainable otherwise we just become England with some semi-detached add-ons like Scotland or Northern Ireland. <br />
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Yes - EVEL creates 2 tiers of MPs and it makes it unlikely that a Scot or Welshman could ever be PM or a senior minister. It turns Westminster into the English Parliament, which it is not. And all this increases the chances of independence.</div>
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What then is the way forward? I accept that the development of a full federal structure will not happen overnight but there are already some ideas on parliament, to work with as an interim step, within the Mackay Commission. Developing wider decentralisation within England probably has to start with developing localism, regional structures like 'Northern Powerhouse' and empowering county authorities. But that is so British. Quirky and organic developments.</div>
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The Smith Commission and the Scotland Bill making its way through parliament gives us a strong devolved Scotland. Stronger even than German Lander and very much as promised during the Referendum campaign, however the nationalists try to spin it. </div>
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The key for devolution to work within the United Kingdom is getting the UK level right and getting devolution right for England. But EVEL is a terrible idea and the Conservatives are clueless about how the union and further devolution can work together.</div>
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<br />GHmltnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08420475365803049630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-210813585213368870.post-16888526482076024432014-09-08T11:40:00.000+01:002014-09-10T16:33:48.387+01:00You're thinking of voting yes? Seriously?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhaJf83kqG5XK-jw4eOnfufUE3Y4d1UqTY0_G5PslVrRuEZErPFcgQLmxMAQmC2dGPsSukGdGLoXwzScB9da-bsSNXBiVX5U9sakmqkYmIDW6F8V9OJbQpjFW7E8yvmseZCRL4VC1fh2HM/s1600/download+(1).jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhaJf83kqG5XK-jw4eOnfufUE3Y4d1UqTY0_G5PslVrRuEZErPFcgQLmxMAQmC2dGPsSukGdGLoXwzScB9da-bsSNXBiVX5U9sakmqkYmIDW6F8V9OJbQpjFW7E8yvmseZCRL4VC1fh2HM/s1600/download+(1).jpg" height="192" width="320" /></a></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">As I write we are 10 days away
from the Independence Referendum which will decide whether Scotland leaves the
United Kingdom, and becomes an independent country or not. The polls have
narrowed and the result seems uncertain. The Yes campaign has made up ground
and seems to have gained some traction, in particular based on scare stories
about the future of the NHS.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">I believe the Yes case is
actually a rather weak one, driven by nationalists who have always wanted
independence simply because that is what they have always wanted - opportunistically taking
advantage of a malaise across the western world of global financial crisis and
disillusion with political establishments.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">And the Nationalists have been
joined in this enterprise by some from the left and a hotch-potch of idealists
looking for change. A disparate group. The problem is everyone is
projecting their own dreams onto Independence. It can't be about all of them.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">In fact the Yes case seems to be
not much more than this: Bad things happen. Westminster is to
blame. Vote for independence and bad things won't happen anymore.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">My concern is I have seen very
little, if any, serious analysis of why we have had an economic crisis and
austerity, and I have seen no solutions offered up by the Yes side. There
is much said about poverty and inequality but no serious discussion about how we
can tackle these issues.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">What we have instead is plenty of
faux anger and overstated argument. Plenty of demonising and othering of
scapegoats - mostly summed up by the concept of 'Westminster'.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">The Yes campaign see themselves
as the real change makers, the catalyst for a thousand lights of radical
thought to make a better nation. They believe they are civic nationalists
building something new and good. Civic nationalism of course takes its
inspiration from enlightenment thought and the American Revolution of the 18th
century. One of its great writers was Tom Paine. His seminal work "Common
Sense" would resonate with many a Yes supporter almost as much as it
inspired the revolutionaries of 1776. In it he wrote, “We have it in our
power to begin the world over again".<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">But here's the thing. The
Scots are in truth quite conservative. The future that is on offer
through independence, far from being progressive about how we can take forward
a modern free market welfare state adapted for the 21st century, seems rather more
likely to be a regressive step back to the 1970s. This is a vision that
if realised would be unlikely to achieve the results hoped for.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">The challenge for Scotland
remains, whether we vote Yes or No, how do we spread the prosperity we undoubtedly
enjoy in the East to central and western Scotland, and how do we improve our
health issues. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<b><i><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">But don’t take it from me.
The nationalists' case is disingenuous and a false one and there are many good
reasons to remain part and parcel of Britain. I have set many of them out
below each with some background should you want to read further.<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">1.<b> It's not just about
the numbers </b><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="background: white; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="background: white; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">It's not
about the numbers (Kevin Hague in Chokka Blog)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"><a href="http://chokkablog.blogspot.co.uk/2014/08/its-not-about-numbers.html">http://chokkablog.blogspot.co.uk/2014/08/its-not-about-numbers.html</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="background: white; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">Why our shared values matter<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="background: white; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">"At the heart of Britain
there is a fusion of Scottish principles of solidarity, egalitarianism and
civil society entwined with English values of liberty, tolerance and
pragmatism that has created a union for social justice where we pool and
share risks and resources across the entire United Kingdom."<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">(Gordon Brown Labour)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="background: white; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"><a href="http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/gordon-browns-vision-scotland-nations-3635875" id="yui_3_16_0_1_1410121777547_5373" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/gordon-browns-vision-scotland-nations-3635875</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">We are not just part of Britain,
we made Britain (Ruth Davidson Conservative)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"><a href="http://youtu.be/tGFaQpkiG1g" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://youtu.be/tGFaQpkiG1g</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">I will vote No because I love
Scotland (Ming Campbell Liberal Democrat)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/apr/07/independence-scotland-scots-powers-parliament-menzies-campbell" id="yui_3_16_0_1_1410121777547_5367" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/apr/07/independence-scotland-scots-powers-parliament-menzies-campbell</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">Head and Heart (Archie McPherson)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"><a href="http://youtu.be/eLiF3dsxYdE">http://youtu.be/eLiF3dsxYdE</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<b><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">2. More Powers<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">The argument is that Scotland already enjoys the best of both worlds - we have a strong Scottish Parliament, with full control of the NHS, schools and policing, and also the strength and security of being part of the UK.</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">And each of
the three political parties supporting Better Together has, over the last two
years, considered developed and published thought through proposals for more
powers and further ‘federalising’ the UK.
The three parties have made a public and joint commitment to work
together to deliver more powers after a No vote. Parties working together originally delivered
devolution in 1999. The parties have now
delivered a detailed timetable about how they will move swiftly to implement
this after the referendum.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">Labour’s
proposals<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"><a href="http://www.scottishlabour.org.uk/campaigns/entry/devolution-commission" target="_blank">http://www.scottishlabour.org.uk/campaigns/entry/devolution-commission</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">The
Conservative proposals<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"> <a href="http://www.scottishconservatives.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Strathclyde_Commission_14.pdf">http://www.scottishconservatives.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Strathclyde_Commission_14.pdf</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">The
LibDem proposals<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"><a href="https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/no2nuisancecalls/pages/228/attachments/original/1409241095/Federalism_-_the_best_future_for_Scotland_web.pdf?1409241095">https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/no2nuisancecalls/pages/228/attachments/original/1409241095/Federalism_-_the_best_future_for_Scotland_web.pdf?1409241095</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<b><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">3. The economy</span></b><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">Scotland could go it alone but is
better as part of the UK (The Economist)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"><a href="http://www.economist.com/node/21552572" id="yui_3_16_0_1_1410121777547_4769" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://www.economist.com/node/21552572</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">66% of the Scottish economy is in
the private sector. About 40%, or 859,000 jobs, are dependent on trade
and ownership links to the UK, while the remaining 26% are linked to the wider
world economy. (Prof Ashcroft Strathclyde University - Scottish Economy Watch)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"><a href="http://www.scottisheconomywatch.com/brian-ashcrofts-scottish/2014/08/scottish-jobs-and-the-world-economy.html" id="yui_3_16_0_1_1410121777547_4774" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://www.scottisheconomywatch.com/brian-ashcrofts-scottish/2014/08/scottish-jobs-and-the-world-economy.html</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">Our economy within the UK is
highly interlinked and London is actually (on balance) an asset to the Scottish
economy. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">(Prof Ashcroft Strathclyde
University - Scottish Economy Watch)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"><a href="http://www.scottisheconomywatch.com/brian-ashcrofts-scottish/2014/05/london-is-an-asset-for-scotland.html" id="yui_3_16_0_1_1410121777547_4776" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://www.scottisheconomywatch.com/brian-ashcrofts-scottish/2014/05/london-is-an-asset-for-scotland.html</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">The effect of having a border - trade
flows, migration flows and capital flows are significantly lower across
international borders than within a unified country. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">(Prof Ashcroft Strathclyde
University - Scottish Economy Watch)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"><a href="http://www.scottisheconomywatch.com/brian-ashcrofts-scottish/2013/11/independence-fact-no1.html" id="yui_3_16_0_1_1410121777547_4783" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://www.scottisheconomywatch.com/brian-ashcrofts-scottish/2013/11/independence-fact-no1.html</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">Scotland's exports to the rest of
the UK accounts for 70% of our 'exports'<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">(Prof Ashcroft Strathclyde
University - Scottish Economy Watch)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"><a href="http://www.scottisheconomywatch.com/brian-ashcrofts-scottish/2013/11/independence-fact-no-4.html" id="yui_3_16_0_1_1410121777547_4786" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://www.scottisheconomywatch.com/brian-ashcrofts-scottish/2013/11/independence-fact-no-4.html</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">Small countries are neither more
or less successful than large ones but are more volatile. (Prof Ashcroft
Strathclyde University - Scottish Economy Watch)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"><a href="http://www.scottisheconomywatch.com/brian-ashcrofts-scottish/2013/11/independence-fact-no3.html" id="yui_3_16_0_1_1410121777547_4788" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://www.scottisheconomywatch.com/brian-ashcrofts-scottish/2013/11/independence-fact-no3.html</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">Some small states can do well out
of independence in some ways. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">(Prof Ashcroft Strathclyde
University - Scottish Economy Watch)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"><a href="http://www.scottisheconomywatch.com/brian-ashcrofts-scottish/2013/11/independence-fact-no2.html">http://www.scottisheconomywatch.com/brian-ashcrofts-scottish/2013/11/independence-fact-no2.html</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">The greater tax receipts we have
received as a result of oil were invested for the people of Scotland, creating
jobs and investing in public services. We have in effect had our oil fund
all along.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">(Prof Ashcroft Strathclyde
University - Scottish Economy Watch)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"><a href="http://www.scottisheconomywatch.com/brian-ashcrofts-scottish/2013/04/scottish-tax-and-spend.html">http://www.scottisheconomywatch.com/brian-ashcrofts-scottish/2013/04/scottish-tax-and-spend.html</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">We would not be £8.3bn better off
under independence. This is untrue. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">(Kevin Hague in Chokka Blog)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"><a href="http://chokkablog.blogspot.co.uk/2014/08/83bn-better-off.html">http://chokkablog.blogspot.co.uk/2014/08/83bn-better-off.html</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">A summary of some other key
talking points (Kevin Hague in Chokka Blog)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">-<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>Companies in Scotland that trade with the rest of the UK would probably
be damaged and suffer job losses by the effect of establishing a border.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">- GDP
per head does not tell you how rich a country is - an independent Scottish
economy would be a middle ranking economy with high levels of foreign
ownership.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">-
Scotland would face some significant hurdles to EU membership and any terms on
which we joined.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">- The start up costs for an
independent<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><b><i>are</i></b><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>probably close to £2.5bn after
analysing the range of estimates.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">- Business for Scotland does not
represent business in Scotland and is not a serious think tank in any way.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"><a href="http://chokkablog.blogspot.co.uk/2014/08/you-read-it-here-first.html">http://chokkablog.blogspot.co.uk/2014/08/you-read-it-here-first.html</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">4. <span class="apple-converted-space"><b> </b></span><b>The NHS</b><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">The Nationalists are lying about
the NHS to gain electoral advantage. (Dr Gregor on the BBC)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"><a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-28883221?fid=15991&isc=1&did=custom.5012&ctp=article" id="yui_3_16_0_1_1410121777547_5895" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-28883221?fid=15991&isc=1&did=custom.5012&ctp=article</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">Health service spending in
England is increasing in real terms, there is more spending per head of
population on health in Scotland under devolution, the Scottish Government
makes extensive use of private firms to provide healthcare, there is no
political party proposing ending the NHS in England - it would be political
suicide to do so. What political arguments there are in England are over
the best way to provide healthcare with an ageing population and increasing
costs of technology - not over taking away free healthcare. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"><a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11044568/SNPs-NHS-claims-most-scandalous-deceit-of-referendum.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11044568/SNPs-NHS-claims-most-scandalous-deceit-of-referendum.html</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<b><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">5. Poverty<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">The SNP's record on poverty is
not a good one. In 7 years in government in Scotland, despite having full
control of health and education the SNP have not introduced a single
redistributive policy - not one!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"><a href="http://www.scotsman.com/news/brian-wilson-snp-s-poverty-of-ideas-on-key-issue-1-2751975">http://www.scotsman.com/news/brian-wilson-snp-s-poverty-of-ideas-on-key-issue-1-2751975</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"><a href="http://www.scotsman.com/news/brian-wilson-food-banks-a-taste-of-things-to-come-1-3511429">http://www.scotsman.com/news/brian-wilson-food-banks-a-taste-of-things-to-come-1-3511429</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">6
<span class="apple-converted-space"><b>The</b></span><b> EU</b><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">An independent Scotland would
start her life outside the EU; even thereafter Scotland would enjoy EU
membership on terms far less beneficial and generous than those enjoyed now by
the UK. (The definitive guide to the process to joining the EU following
leaving the UK by Prof Adam Tomkins, Glasgow University)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"><a href="http://notesfromnorthbritain.wordpress.com/2014/08/29/scotland-and-the-eu/">http://notesfromnorthbritain.wordpress.com/2014/08/29/scotland-and-the-eu/</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">7.<b> Pensions</b><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">Pension schemes operating between
Scotland and the remainder of the UK would be classed as ‘cross-border’ under
EU law if Scotland votes ‘yes’. This means<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>EU solvency requirements would have
major cost and cash flow implications for employers with cross-border pension
schemes. This would be a major financial challenge for employers. (ICAS
report)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"><a href="http://icas.org.uk/News/ScotlandsPensionsFutureNewsrelease/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://icas.org.uk/News/ScotlandsPensionsFutureNewsrelease/</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">Scotland faces a challenge to
provide pensions after independence for both state pensions and private pension
schemes. (Malcolm MacLean, Pensions expert writing in Money Marketing)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"><a href="http://www.moneymarketing.co.uk/news-and-analysis/pensions/opinion/malcolm-mclean-pensions-under-scottish-independence/2012946.article">http://www.moneymarketing.co.uk/news-and-analysis/pensions/opinion/malcolm-mclean-pensions-under-scottish-independence/2012946.article</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">Scotland faces a pensions
timebomb due to our ageing population. Pooling resources across over 60m people
to provide pensions is one of the big advantages of the UK. (Daily
Record)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"><a href="http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/scotland-facing-pensions-timebomb-cost-1754113" id="yui_3_16_0_1_1410121777547_6394" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/scotland-facing-pensions-timebomb-cost-1754113</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">8. Financial Services and
bailing out the banks</span></b><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">An independent Scotland would
have seriously struggled to bail out the banks in the crash of 2007/08.
In this it is vital to understand the the distinction between giving distressed
banks short-term liquidity help and bailing them out. During the crises, UK
banks were, for instance, given short-term liquidity help from both the UK
government and other governments where they were operating, such as the US
government. The bail-out of UK banks, however, came from the UK government, to
the sum of somewhere in the vicinity of £66 billion, or over half of Scotland’s
GDP in 2010 (which stood at about £110 billion). (Brad MacKay, University
of Edinburgh "The Future of the UK and Scotland")<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"><a href="http://www.futureukandscotland.ac.uk/blog/business-and-independence-financial-services">http://www.futureukandscotland.ac.uk/blog/business-and-independence-financial-services</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">9. The advantages of being
part of the UK</span></b><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">If you are serious about looking
into how Scotland works within the UK and the benefits to Scotland of being in
the UK, and there are many, read the Scotland Analysis papers from the UK
treasury.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"><a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/scotland-analysis" id="yiv8273356918yui_3_16_0_7_1409535279541_23" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/scotland-analysis</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">Some of the key advantages of the
UK to Scotland include<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">- Being part of the UK energy
market<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">- The pooled resource across a
union for social justice in pensions<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">- Being part of an integrated
single market and currency union<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">- Science, research and our
universities sector within the UK.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">- Our financial services industry
and banking within a UK sector which due to regulation, tax and currency would
have to fragment after separation.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">- The value of UK Defence
industries and military shipbuilding to Scotland<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">10. The Nationalists'
questions</span></b><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">Is there a democratic deficit in
Scotland? (Effie Deans blog)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"><a href="http://effiedeans.blogspot.co.uk/2014/08/is-there-democratic-deficit-in-scotland.html" id="yiv1755262860yui_3_16_0_6_1409538196008_26" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://effiedeans.blogspot.co.uk/2014/08/is-there-democratic-deficit-in-scotland.html</a><o:p></o:p></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">The McCrone Report myth - the
extent of North Sea Oil was never a secret.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"><a href="http://nat-mythbusting.blogspot.co.uk/2009/02/mccrone-myth-refuted.html">http://nat-mythbusting.blogspot.co.uk/2009/02/mccrone-myth-refuted.html</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">The Wee Blue Book from extreme
nationalist website Wings over Scotland is erroneous in many of its details or
deliberately misleading as it is written with an agenda of nationalist
propaganda. Consider this evidence. (Kevin Hague in Chokka Blog)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"><a href="http://chokkablog.blogspot.co.uk/2014/08/the-wee-blue-book-of-lies.html" id="yui_3_16_0_1_1410121777547_5868" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://chokkablog.blogspot.co.uk/2014/08/the-wee-blue-book-of-lies.html</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">Business for Scotland do not
represent businesses that employ anyone or that deal cross border. They
have no credibility. The detail (Kevin Hague in Chokka Blog)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"><a href="http://chokkablog.blogspot.co.uk/2014/06/who-do-business-for-scotland-represent.html" id="yui_3_16_0_1_1410121777547_5888" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://chokkablog.blogspot.co.uk/2014/06/who-do-business-for-scotland-represent.html</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">It's not about the SNP - yes it
is! (Effie Deans blog)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"><a href="http://effiedeans.blogspot.co.uk/2014/06/a-vote-for-independence-is-vote-for-snp.html" id="yui_3_16_0_1_1410121777547_7474" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://effiedeans.blogspot.co.uk/2014/06/a-vote-for-independence-is-vote-for-snp.html</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">Wings over Scotland is an extreme
nationalist blogsite with an agenda of nationalist propaganda. It is
homophobic and mysoginistic. It also has a consistently angry and
outraged tone aiming poisoned articles at its targets. This is negative
and provokes needless hate and division and as such has no place in the debate
over Scotland's future. (Edinburgh Eye)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"><a href="http://edinburgheye.wordpress.com/2014/06/14/the-invisible-wings/#more-15400" id="yui_3_16_0_1_1410121777547_8264" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://edinburgheye.wordpress.com/2014/06/14/the-invisible-wings/#more-15400</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">Think again - (Nupateer.Com)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"><a href="http://youtu.be/dJpr7Qg-UAk">http://youtu.be/dJpr7Qg-UAk</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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GHmltnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08420475365803049630noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-210813585213368870.post-25346445107954939422014-06-20T17:46:00.000+01:002014-09-10T16:27:17.011+01:00The identity and the future of the nation<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcwVcNaLqQk4VdPwTjfN9lBPCUb_m8e1cT7R5QK63Ts_Fex32uSwM8Tg3yPM6KeMcCZrSCP3fS0FzgZbnEfAjvbSrqhWAQEdBZB7EQb45R6_YZS-zc8jIcM3qqs9qe2EdkjNiAZwb5Srw/s1600/Forth+bridges.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcwVcNaLqQk4VdPwTjfN9lBPCUb_m8e1cT7R5QK63Ts_Fex32uSwM8Tg3yPM6KeMcCZrSCP3fS0FzgZbnEfAjvbSrqhWAQEdBZB7EQb45R6_YZS-zc8jIcM3qqs9qe2EdkjNiAZwb5Srw/s1600/Forth+bridges.jpg" height="132" width="200" /></a><span style="background-color: white; color: #292f33; font-family: 'Gotham Narrow SSm', sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px; white-space: pre-wrap;">Last night I watched Prof Tom Devine, one of Scotland's greatest living historians, on TV.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #292f33; font-family: 'Gotham Narrow SSm', sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #292f33; font-family: 'Gotham Narrow SSm', sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px; white-space: pre-wrap;">I like Tom Devine and I like what he has to say. He has as fine an understanding of Scotland and what it is to be Scottish as anyone. </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #292f33; font-family: 'Gotham Narrow SSm', sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px; white-space: pre-wrap;">Talking about the Independence Referendum we take part in, in three month's time he said, "This is about the identity and the future of the nation". </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #292f33; font-family: 'Gotham Narrow SSm', sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px; white-space: pre-wrap;">I agree with Tom Devine on this.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #292f33; font-family: 'Gotham Narrow SSm', sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #292f33; font-family: 'Gotham Narrow SSm', sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px; white-space: pre-wrap;">He described how a collective sentiment of 'the people of Scotland as a nation' exists. He also described how our sense of Scottishness and Britishness changes over time too. For it is a duality that we have, and it is elastic and adaptable to different times. But nonetheless it is a duality of identity. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #292f33; font-family: 'Gotham Narrow SSm', sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #292f33; font-family: 'Gotham Narrow SSm', sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px; white-space: pre-wrap;">I believed 2 years ago and believe today that this referendum is a head and heart thing. That while there are many factors for each of us to consider, it is at root about two things - the practicalities of economics and our identity as a nation. Are we simply Scottish or is that duality of Britishness and Scottishness still relevant?</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #292f33; font-family: 'Gotham Narrow SSm', sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #292f33; font-family: 'Gotham Narrow SSm', sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px; white-space: pre-wrap;">I believe that that duality <b><i>is</i></b> still relevant and therefore a devolved settlement with a structure that is as federal as possible is the way forward. For me independence is not the way. It is not a solution that is either practical or best reflects who we are.</span>GHmltnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08420475365803049630noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-210813585213368870.post-76233130534738533612013-07-19T00:37:00.001+01:002013-07-19T00:37:35.748+01:00Pensions killed Detroit<br />
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<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><i>I originally posted this in 2011 (from a British perspective). Tonight, as Detroit files for bankruptcy it seems worth revisiting it.</i></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">At a time where public sector pensions have been at the heart of our national debate its worth thinking about what happened in the United States. Why? Because expensive and outdated pension schemes have destroyed the auto manufacturing industry in Detroit and with it the city!</span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Detroit is a city built around the car manufacturing industry. It used to be dominated by the big 3 auto companies – GM, Chrysler and Ford. In recent years the industry and the city have collapsed. In the 1950s 1.8 million people lived in Detroit. Today it is less than 800,000. There has been a 25% decline in population in the last 10 years alone. At the root of this has been the decline and fall of the car manufacturers at the heart of the economy.</span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Why have the big 3 auto companies declined? Well, they had been relying too much on SUV sales and not making enough small and hybrid cars and they have been dogged by poor quality. However, the biggest single reason has been the massive cost of their employee benefits and pensions programme.</span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Between 1993 and 2007, GM poured $103 billion into funding their pensions and healthcare scheme. Over the same period they could only afford to pay out $13 billion in dividends. GM also had to work hard to play catch up as funding payments into the scheme fell behind. At the start of the 2000s it had to pay an additional $20 billion to catch up payments and agreed to pay a further $30 billion to fund future healthcare liabilities. Note I am talking billions here, not millions!</span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">The point is the pensions and benefits schemes totally starved GM of investment and made a massive contribution to GM falling behind developments in the US car market. Chrysler and Ford had similar stories.</span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Many other car companies based in southern or mid western states have been able to come in with far cheaper operating costs and beat the big 3 Detroit firms in competition. Notably Nissan whose costs per worker in the US were more than 40% cheaper – largely because of the costs of the employee benefits package.</span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">The Big 3 employee benefits package had been set up in 1950 in a deal arranged by the Union of Auto Workers UAW that became known as the Treaty of Detroit. In a time of full employment and little competition the industry committed itself to open ended final salary arrangements with fixed guarantees. As the workforce has grown and aged and as workers have lived longer these have become more and more expensive than ever envisaged and the companies have found themselves locked into open ended arrangements where they cannot control the costs.</span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Detroit and the car companies have been not alone in their pension schemes causing catastrophic loses. A huge pension liability created a budgetary nightmare for New Jersey and the city of Vallejo in California actually filed for bankruptcy because it couldn’t handle the costs of police department pensions.</span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Roger Lowenstein wrote about this further in his 2008 book “While America Aged: How pension debts ruined General Motors, stopped the NYC subways, bankrupted San Diego and loom as the next financial crisis.”</span></span></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Change is unavoidable in the UK</span></span></b></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">The UK faces similar issues. Through the 50s and 60s – a time of effective full employment - there was a massive growth in Final Salary pension schemes. The UK developed a parallel system of occupational pensions provision for those in the public sector and larger companies along with growing state provision.</span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">13% of the population had been in occupational schemes before the war – mostly in the public sector. By the end of the 1960s this figure was 53%. However, in 1961 life expectancy for men was 68 years and just under 72 years for women. In 1908, when the first state pensions were introduced they kicked in at 70, an age many failed to ever attain! Today life expectancy in the UK is 77.9 for men and 82 for women - and growing every year.</span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Longevity – the fact that we are living longer is making pensions provision more and more expensive. There are of course other factors like salary inflation but this factor alone is at the root of the problem. After the war people were retiring at age 65 and expected to live on average about 5 years or so in retirement. Today people, in pension schemes are retiring at 60 and can expect to live to 80 on average – 4 times longer than envisaged when the pension schemes were conceived.</span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Private sector Final Salary pension schemes in the UK are therefore dead! They have been for the last 5 – 10 years. While existing members are still in the schemes, they are all closed to new entrants. Companies can no longer afford them and given that the benefits are fixed and guaranteed they are an open ended and growing commitment. They are no longer commercially tenable and are a risk to the business. That is why they are dead.</span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">One pensions commentator, I think it was Tom McPhail, said last week that we will probably all have to spend a little less, save a little more and work a little longer to fund our retirements in future. I think this is sound and reasonable advice and actually one of the most intelligent things I heard last week.</span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Final Salary pensions continue in the public sector – unfunded by investment and paid for by general taxation. Yes, their projected costs are set to fall with CPI rather than RPI indexation and workers make a contribution. But the projected fall in costs are because of these small reforms already in the pipeline. They are still hugely expensive.</span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Pensions are in fact deferred pay. Today, because of the current pensions position it often pays far more working for the public sector than for the private sector. This means the wider population are being asked to fund pensions which are far more generous than anything available to them. This means funding something akin to our entire defence spending budget. And no economy is going to last for very long where it is more attractive to work for the public sector than for the private sector!</span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Ros Altmann, the Director General of Saga and something of an expert on UK pensions, argues that Final Salary pensions are actually fundamentally unfair as they disproportionately award high flyers being based on one year’s salary at the end of their career rather than taking into account, say, a lifetime of service and contributions. It is right to reward high flyers when they are working – maybe not to continue to do so often for many years longer than they actually worked for their employer!</span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">The true costs of final salary schemes are unsustainable to fund as the private sector has discovered. Employers can’t underwrite unquantifiable, open-ended commitments for decades in the future. Neither can the state or future tax payers – change is unavoidable. </span></span></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">What to do?</span></span></b></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">It seems to me that the real issue here is that our occupational pension infra-structure – both private and public is broken.</span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">The government is introducing auto enrolment so that everyone will have a modest occupational pension. This will help a little with the many who are not in any pension scheme at all.</span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">However, it is very modest provision. In the second half of the 20<sup>th</sup> century companies fulfilled a social welfare function providing generous pensions – using tax advantages to provide deferred salary in effect.</span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">With jobs for life long gone and guaranteed final salary schemes for life long gone, companies don’t do social welfare anymore – nor can we really count on them to do so. Unfortunately, many employers have been replacing old generous schemes with much less generous ‘money-purchase’ schemes with no guarantees and all the investment risk is with the employee. The new auto enrolment provisions, while welcome for some, just accelerates this levelling down affect.</span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">I’m told both the USA and Australia have been much more effective than the British at replacing old unsustainable pension schemes with new money purchase provision.</span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">I think the public sector unions have a real opportunity here. They need to be constructive. Accept the old pensions are unsustainable and come up with some good alternatives. If they are sustainable and something new that provides decent pensions takes its place, market forces in the labour market could lead the way to improvements in the private sector too.</span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">We <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">all</i></b> need to save more and we <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">all</i></b> need something that is more sustainable! </span></span></div>
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GHmltnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08420475365803049630noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-210813585213368870.post-52149942467008186642013-05-21T00:36:00.000+01:002013-05-21T11:28:58.626+01:00The Four Freedoms of liberalism <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Tonight I just wanted to record some important words that I feel need spoken again. </span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="color: black;">In January 1941 America's greatest president, Franklin Roosevelt, delivered his State of the Union address to Congress. It was to be one of the great speeches and one of the most important expositions of political liberalism. </span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="color: black;">It is known as The Four Freedoms Speech.</span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="color: black;">"...The basic things expected by our people of their political and
economic systems are simple. They are:</span></span></span></div>
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Equality of opportunity for youth and for others.</span></span></span></div>
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Jobs for those who can work.</span></span></span></div>
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Security for those who need it.</span></span></span></div>
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The ending of special privilege for the few.</span></span></span></div>
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The preservation of civil liberties for all.</span></span></span></div>
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The enjoyment -- The enjoyment of the fruits of scientific progress in a wider and
constantly rising standard of living.</span></span></span></div>
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These are the simple, the basic things that must never be lost
sight of in the turmoil and unbelievable complexity of our modern world. The inner and abiding strength of our economic and political systems is
dependent upon the degree to which they fulfill these expectations.</span></span></span></div>
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Many subjects connected with our social economy call for
immediate improvement. As examples:</span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">We should bring more citizens under the coverage of old-age
pensions and unemployment insurance.</span></div>
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We should widen the opportunities for adequate medical care.</span></span></span></div>
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We should plan a better system by which persons deserving or
needing gainful employment may obtain it.</span></span></span></div>
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I have called for personal sacrifice, and I am assured of the
willingness of almost all Americans to respond to that call. A part of the sacrifice means the payment of more money in taxes. In my budget message I will recommend that a greater portion of this
great defense program be paid for from taxation than we are paying for today. No person should try, or be allowed to get rich out of the program, and
the principle of tax payments in accordance with ability to pay should be
constantly before our eyes to guide our legislation.</span></span></span></div>
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If the Congress maintains these principles the voters, putting
patriotism ahead of pocketbooks, will give you their applause.</span></span></span></div>
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In the future days, which we seek to make secure, we look forward
to a world founded upon four essential human freedoms.</span></span></span></div>
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The first is freedom of speech and expression -- everywhere in the world.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="color: black;">The second is
freedom of every person to worship God in his own way -- everywhere in the world.</span></span></span></div>
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The third is freedom from want, which, translated into world
terms, means economic understandings which will secure to every nation a healthy
peacetime life for its inhabitants -- everywhere in the world.</span></span></span></div>
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The fourth is freedom from fear, which, translated into world
terms, means a world-wide reduction of armaments to such a point and in such a
thorough fashion that no nation will be in a position to commit an act of
physical aggression against any neighbor -- anywhere in the world.</span></span></span></div>
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That is no vision of a distant millennium. It
is a definite basis for a kind of world attainable in our own time and
generation. That kind of world is the very antithesis of the
so-called “new order” of tyranny which the dictators seek to create with the
crash of a bomb.</span></span></span></div>
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To that new order we oppose the greater conception -- the moral
order. A good society is able to face schemes of world
domination and foreign revolutions alike without fear.</span></span></span></div>
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Since the beginning of our American history we have been engaged
in change, in a perpetual, peaceful revolution, a revolution which goes on
steadily, quietly, adjusting itself to changing conditions without the
concentration camp or the quicklime in the ditch. The world
order which we seek is the cooperation of free countries, working together in a
friendly, civilized society.</span></span></span></div>
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This nation has placed its destiny in the hands and heads and hearts
of its millions of free men and women, and its faith in freedom under the
guidance of God. Freedom means the supremacy of human rights
everywhere. Our support goes to those who struggle to gain
those rights and keep them. Our strength is our unity of
purpose.</span></span></span></div>
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To that high concept there can be no end save victory."</span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: Verdana;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">If you wish to read the speech in its entirety is is <a href="http://americanrhetoric.com/speeches/fdrthefourfreedoms.htm" target="_blank">here</a>. </span></span></span></span><br />
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GHmltnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08420475365803049630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-210813585213368870.post-51229682512607936722013-05-20T00:47:00.001+01:002013-05-20T00:47:55.690+01:00Fourteen thoughts<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Some thoughts on British politics three years into the current government. <br />
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1. The Conservative Party has never understood nor accepted coalition.<br />
<br />
2. The Conservatives have never really accepted they didn't win the election in 2010.<br />
<br />
3. The Conservatives historically have always eaten themselves every generation or so over tariff reform / Europe.<br />
<br />
4. The Conservative Party are split between two generations and split over Europe.<br />
<br />
5. The Conservatives head for the next election split from head to foot, somewhat
directionless and their idealistic drive for public sector cuts and excessive austerity (too deep, too quick and no plan B) discredited.<br />
<br />
6. The Labour Party are struggling to find their soul and with an uncharismatic leader.<br />
<br />
7. The Labour Party are caught between the economic policy they know they would have to deliver and what they would like to deliver.<br />
<br />
8 The SNP are caught with a somewhat shallow policy and a tendency to grandstand for the purposes of delivering independence.<br />
<br />
9 The SNP's proposition of low taxes plus increased social justice is wearing thin and intellectually dishonest.<br />
<br />
10 The SNP may still have the political prowess to take advantage of the situation but their credibility is diminishing.<br />
<br />
11. This vacuum of political disappointment in times of global financial crisis may yet help the LibDems.<br />
<br />
12 But the LibDem brand is damaged and Clegg may lack the charisma or
political nouce to take advantage. These are both his challenges and
his opportunities.<br />
<br />
13 Into this vacuum floods UKIP but what is their point? Their solutions
are shallow, ill formed, populist, mean and stand up to little scrutiny.<br />
<br />
14 So, there is all to play for - we live in interesting times!GHmltnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08420475365803049630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-210813585213368870.post-75291865184991339692013-05-19T18:33:00.000+01:002013-05-19T18:33:29.642+01:00Why an EU Ref makes a Yes Indyref vote even less likely<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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I love polls. And I love the study of psephology - try saying that just after you have had your wisdom teeth out! Most of all I love the detail revealed in the full tables of data behind the polls - the trends, the regional variations and the balance across age groups.<br />
<br />
It is with this interest that I read the latest Panelbase Poll on Scotland and Scottish Independence. It shows the following:<br />
<br />
44% No, 36% Yes, 20% Don't know. (sample 1004, survey May 10-16)<br />
<br />
Interestingly IPSOS Mori showed:<br />
<br />
59 % No, 31% Yes, 10% Don't know (sample 1001, survey April 29- May 5)<br />
<br />
The first showed a small drop in the No vote, the second showed a drop in the Yes vote.<br />
<br />
Hmmmm - a little contradictory in terms of how big the No vote is and how many undecideds there are. We shall see how other polls measure this and how the trends go.<br />
<br />
My own view is this; the Yes camp has been stuck on around a third for a while and this matches pretty much the level of support Independence has had in Scotland since the 1970s give or take a couple of blips around devolution being introduced, Alex Salmond winning a majority in Holyrood and the introduction of the poll tax over 20 years ago.<br />
<br />
Yes seem to be losing. The Heather has failed to catch light. And while millions moved in the streets of Barcelona, the Catalan capital, for their national movement, Scotland's just about filled the Ross Bandstand in Princes Street Gardens. <br />
<br />
Yes seem increasingly on the backfoot under close scrutiny on the currency and several aspects of the consequences for pensions - both public sector and private. Fissures have been appearing between the SNP on one hand who want to keep the Pound, the Queen and the Bank of England as well as shared financial regulation (funny independence that - may as well keep some political union if that's the game!); and on the other hand, the hard left who support a more recognisable independence complete with Scotland's own currency, a republic and withdrawal from NATO.<br />
<br />
Other aspects of the movement's vision appeared to be wearing thin. Strike out for freedom and let 1,000 flowers to bloom. We could be a Nordic paradise free from Westminster austerity and injustice.<br />
<br />
Is this from the SNP whose tax cutting agenda (Community Charge freeze, Corporation Tax, Air Passenger Duty and VAT) promises to deliver a social justice nirvana at the same time? Or is it with a hard left agenda that presumably will bring with it high unemployment, accelerating economic decline and nothing but social justice disappointments?<br />
<br />
It doesn't really add up does it?<br />
<br />
But one thing could change the direction of this debate - Europe.<br />
<br />
As the Conservatives set about trying to destroy themselves once more over Europe, an In/Out referendum for Britain in Europe looms large and exiting the EU a real possibility. Note what today's Panelbase poll says:<br />
<br />
If the UK is going to leave he EU the vote on Scottish Independence becomes:<br />
<br />
44% No, 44% Yes, 12% undecided. A dead heat!<br />
<br />
The EU shenanigans may be about to open the field up again for the Scottish Independence Referendum.<br />
<br />
I have just one set of thoughts I wanted to put down about this today. That this is the electorate's gut reaction of the last few days as this issue has exploded onto the scene once more. It is not yet a considered view in the light of analysis and discussion of the pros and cons of the various options. Simplistically I believe the various options line up like this for a would be independent Scotland:<br />
<br />
<b>Scotland in EU, Rest of UK in EU</b><br />
As you were, the Independence debate is framed as it was.<br />
<br />
<b>Scotland in EU, Rest of UK out of EU</b><br />
Nightmare. This is a nightmare for the single market that we hitherto shared with England. The currency, financial regulation, and the operation of all sorts of cross border institutions become an even bigger problem. And what of Schengen and border controls in this sceanario. Nightmare.<br />
<br />
<b>Scotland out of EU, Rest of UK out of EU</b><br />
Even bigger nightmare. Not in the UK, not in the EU, small and on the fringes of Europe, and dealing with tariffs and a regulatory environment from the outside.<br />
<br />
It actually strikes me that if the rest of the UK leaves Europe, which I think it would be mad to do, Scotland may well be better remaining part of that UK.<br />
<br />
Another alternative may be to share a regulatory and monetary environment with the rest of the UK - both outside the EU, but that is not really independence is it. Again, we might as well have a democratic political say in such a union if that is to be the case.<br />
<br />
(And yes I know you could have Scotland out of Europe and the rest of the UK in but I think that is unlikely and if it were to come to pass I don't see that scenario as being too clever either).<br />
<br />
Which all goes to show that as we consider what all this means, I think uncertainty over Europe actually makes a Yes vote for Scottish Independence even more unlikely!!<br />
<br />
These are my initial thoughts. I await developments and further analysis with interest. And more polling too! <br />
<br />
GHmltnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08420475365803049630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-210813585213368870.post-23245120378337384812013-04-21T02:52:00.000+01:002013-04-21T02:52:09.086+01:00The anti-social union<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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So Scotland, which way shall we go? Straight ahead carrying on much as we are now, or off one way to independence or another to constitutional change but within the UK? Its been argued that this is the political choice, but whatever happens a social union exists amongst the people of these islands and that will not change. I wanted to write my thoughts on the idea of social union and how I believe Independence is in fact a process of separation that would change everything - including our ideas of social union.<br />
<br />
Scottish nationalists will often argue that they are not separatists, rather they believe in Scotland having political independence with social ties remaining intact within a British social union. I have heard this while comparing being Scandinavian with being from the British Isles.<br />
<br />
This is a clever conceit and one that deserves serious consideration. It is all the more clever because it is impossible to prove or disprove. In that sense I need to go with my gut here. However, I think it is important to test and challenge this argument because it is an all too easy one to make and ultimately, I believe, a false proposition.<br />
<br />
The reason I think it is a false proposition is this. If Scotland were to separate from the United Kingdom there is no Britain anymore and everything changes. Yes we have a shared language, yes we have shared geography and yes we have a largely shared culture. But it would be rather like a divorced couple. The old family has gone, the old household is no more. They no longer share the same life. Sure there are ties, shared memories, shared children, shared friends even, but they are no longer married and they live separate lives. If Scotland becomes independent, Britain will have ceased to be and very quickly no one in the south will be that interested anymore - it is no longer their business and we are no longer theirs. <br />
<br />
To suggest that life after independence is just the same except for eliminating the possibility of a Tory government is disingenuous and wrong.<br />
<br />
Michael Ignatieff, the commentator and ex Canadian politician, drawing on Quebec and the Canadian experience, has pointed out that everything will change whatever the result. Alex Salmond says we will have the Queen, the Pound and the BBC; Unionists say nothing will change because the nationalists will lose. Ignatieff thinks both are wrong. A lot will change and will change quickly. Pointing to the Quebec experience, Ignatieff says that the rest of Canada no longer have much to say to each other and that is without the step of full independence.<br />
<br />
No, we should be in no doubt, if we become independent there will not be a continuing sort of quasi country existing in the form of a social union without the political union. Britain will have ceased to be.<br />
<br />
In fact the idea of a social union (with political autonomy) describes what we have with devolution and what we can have all the more with some form of developed devolution - not with independence. Call it what you will - Devo Max/Plus, Home Rule or Federalism - developing devolution is the far more likely outcome of the Independence Referendum. So, I believe we should be concentrating more discussion on that, what form it takes, how it fits within a wider UK settlement and how we get there. <br />
<br />
Given there is far more that binds us than separates us - culturally, linguistically and geographically; and given our separate identity within a United Kingdom of regions and nations, a significantly devolved Scotland within a United Kingdom remains, as it has always done, by far the most natural settlement. That is how you preserve a social union. Independence is the anti-social union. GHmltnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08420475365803049630noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-210813585213368870.post-41039658387652637432013-04-17T19:07:00.001+01:002013-05-29T03:28:22.405+01:00We come to bury Thatcher not to praise her...<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 18px;">I write on this, Margaret
Thatcher's funeral day.</span><br />
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<i><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">"Friends, Romans, countrymen, lend me your ears.</span></i><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<i><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">I come to bury Caesar, not to praise him.</span></i><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<i><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">The evil that men do lives after them;</span></i><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<i><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">The good is oft interrèd with their bones..."</span></i><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">Julius Caesar Act 3, Scene 2<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">So begins Mark Anthony's funeral oration for Julius Caesar.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">Tony Benn tells the story that he met Mrs Thatcher at the funeral
of Eric Heffer, the veteran left wing MP. Heffer was a socialist and collectivist and one whose viewpoint Mrs Thatcher
strongly opposed. But, nevertheless, she had come to pay her respects to
a political opponent and fellow parliamentarian. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">It is right that political colleagues should gather with family
and friends for her funeral. She was a Prime Minister of our nation and
the first woman to hold this office. Along with The Edwardian Liberals of
1906 and the post war Labour government of 1945, she led one of the three most
important administrations in the 20th century. She was a servant of Britain and
it is right to honour her in death. This does not mean I agreed with her.
I fought against her. Opposition to her politicised me in many
ways. I do not believe I was wrong then and I do not support what she did
now. But it is right to honour her in death.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">An economics lecture I attended in the summer of 1984 pretty much
nailed an accurate and fair assessment of her administration in my opinion. It remains
remarkably sound in its analysis, even today. Given by a
lecturer whose sympathies were left of centre it was nonetheless a non partisan
academic giving a reasoned, objective and evidence based assessment. He
was speaking a year into her second term. The miner's strike was underway, the
worst of the recession was behind her, council house sales had been a success
and she was just beginning the privatisation sell offs.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">He painted a picture of an administration that did a number of
things that probably had to be done and that had an idealistic agenda to change
the post war consensus to make Britain more fit for economic realities. He
showed how, on both counts, Mrs Thatcher was a qualified success.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">She came to power in 1979 at the end of a decade where the
trades unions seemed incredibly undemocratic and a number of union Barons
wielded an inappropriately large amount of power. This power seemed
to be more about applying restrictions that held the economy back or about
wielding political power, rather than fighting for workers' rights. It was
also the end of a decade that was extremely hard economically. We had
faced two recessions, rampant inflation and high taxes.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">Mrs Thatcher changed this. High inflation became a thing of
the past, taxes were lowered and the unions were tamed. The number of
days lost to strike action reduced dramatically and politically motivated
disputes seemed a thing of the past.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">However, the great question is how much of this would have
happened anyway?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">Economic growth during the 1980s was only a little better than its post
war average. Thatcher in fact ditched monetarism (trying
to control inflation by controlling the money supply) after a few years as they
kept over shooting their targets. However, there is no doubt that inflation
was tamed. I suggest strongly that we did not need Thatcherism to tame
both high inflation and taxation - they would have happened anyway, one way or
another.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">I think what Mrs Thatcher delivered was an end to the
'Bustkellite' post war political consensus and the idea that there is no such
thing as a free lunch - governments may be full of good intentions but services
have to be paid for and you cannot pay for anything unless the country is
making money from goods and services.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">As Stephanie Flanders put it on the BBC, Thatcher made us all
powerful as consumers which is actually quite liberating. Before the
powerful were the CBI and Unions. The coverage of elections in 1979 and
1983 - especially the 79 one are full of interviews with some extremely boring,
self important and breathtakingly un-self aware union leaders. The CBI types were no less of a self-parody. The
framing of politics as unions v bosses was sterile and neither side represented
the British people particularly well. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">Mrs Thatcher also wanted to turn us into a property owning, share
owning democracy.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">She succeeded in making us property owners with most of us owning
our own homes after Thatcher. The Conservative policy of selling off
council houses at a discount was enormously popular and empowering for people.
On the negative side the social housing stock was not replenished and we
do not have enough of this right up to the present time.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">I am not so sure she succeeded in turning us into a share owning
democracy. Many of us owned shares by the end of the 1980s, whereas before
this was a preserve of the elite. However, few people owned anything
other than privatisation sell-off shares.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">However, in subsequent years more have come to own shares
indirectly through personal pension plans, PEPs and then ISA plans, but this has
been a qualified success. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">She also lowered tax - especially on the wealthy and companies -
and replaced some of this with higher VAT. Now some of this needed to
happen to balance the tax rates and stop them being unnecessarily punitive.
Paradoxically this probably led to an increased tax take and helped
business develop. However, she was a believer in supply side economics
and guilty of seeing low tax as an incentive (to the wealthy) and benefits (for the poor) as a
disincentive. Hmmmmmm - no doubt there is a valid point in there but it
always felt to me that the wealthy and powerful wrote that one!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 13.5pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 13.5pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><b>The casino economy</b></span></div>
<div style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 13.5pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 13.5pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">The lecture I heard in 1984 pointed out we were creating more of a
casino economy than a strong sustainable one. Subsequent writers have
pointed out the same. I have to say I believe this is a key weakness of Mrs Thatcher's legacy.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 13.5pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 15.75pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; text-align: justify; vertical-align: top;">
<i><span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; padding: 0cm;">"Speculators may do no harm as bubbles on a steady stream of
enterprise. But the position is serious when enterprise becomes the bubble on a
whirlpool of speculation. When the capital development of a country becomes a
by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be
ill-done."</span></i><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 15.75pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; text-align: justify; vertical-align: top;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">John Maynard Keynes, "The General Theory of Employment,
Interest and Money</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 13.5pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 13.5pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">Herein lies the criticism. Monetarism - although it played a
part in reducing very high inflation - ultimately failed as it accelerated the
decline of manufactured industry and the increase in unemployment. She
created unemployment blackspots which remain blackspots to this day. She
created a drift of jobs to the south and an economy based on service jobs.
The collapse of rust belt industries meant a loss of engineering skills
which we could have done with more of in order to create sustainable jobs.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 13.5pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 13.5pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">That's not to say she was wrong to liberalise the economy in order
to let it adapt. These policies had many successes. And, as my
lecturer pointed out in the summer of 1984 - still early in the miners’ strike
- there would be only one working coal mine left in Scotland by the end of the
1980s. He was right! <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 13.5pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 13.5pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; line-height: 13.5pt;">Similarly, she deregulated financial services. Big Bang, the
Financial Services Act 1986, and liberalising the functions and capabilities of
Banks, Building Societies, Insurers and Friendly Societies produced a boom in
financial services. This helped to inject more capital to oil the wheels of the
economy. This contributed to the huge success of Edinburgh and places
like Leeds as financial centres - not just London.</span></div>
<div style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 13.5pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 13.5pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">Now, the global financial crisis of 2008 cannot be her fault, nor the
subsequent prolonged period of chronic low growth we now find ourselves in.
But she sowed the seeds. </span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 13.5pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 13.5pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">Her economic approach produced no German economic miracle of mostly
sustainable, high production, high technology jobs with longevity for the 21<sup>st</sup>
century. At times she seemed a little
callous running a laissez faire approach to liberalisation and economic natural
selection letting rotting fruits wither on the vine. None of this is easy of course. They say that if you have a tomato plant spilling
all over the place, rather than try to water and feed all of it with finite
resources, you are best watering the strong bits thoroughly at the expense of
the less viable parts. That way the whole plant will thrive and the largest
and best quality crop will be produced.
Nevertheless, in letting heavy industry die and in accelerating the
decline of manufacturing through the mistakes her governments made in the early
1980s, we lost a lot of engineering skills.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 13.5pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 13.5pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">There was not enough mix in the economy. By and large the economic blackspots of the
1980s are still economic blackspots. We rely
too heavily on the service sector, too heavily on financial services and too
heavily on the South-East.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 13.5pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 13.5pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">Keynes wrote about economic bubbles and too much speculation. The housing booms created too much economic
activity based on remortgage debt. The
approach to shares was rather more about investment returns from a killing on the
market, rather than capital investment in productivity. It was too much about consumption and not
enough about investment and reconstruction of our rust belts.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 13.5pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 13.5pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">The global financial crisis and subsequent lost decade have been caused by bursting
bubbles – first a property one and then a credit one. Throw in reckless banking policies and a
shadow banking system based on speculation - that our ratings agencies and
regulators were not equal to - and bang, the economy has faltered on an epoch
creating scale!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 13.5pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 13.5pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; line-height: 13.5pt;">It is of course complicated to get right.</span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; line-height: 13.5pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; line-height: 13.5pt;">I am probably still a Keynesian at heart </span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; line-height: 13.5pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; line-height: 13.5pt;">but you cannot simply spend your way out of a
recession – Callaghan recognised this at the end of the 70s.</span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; line-height: 13.5pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; line-height: 13.5pt;">Mrs Thatcher’s policies of stimulating growth, and of freeing markets and consumerism were important and needed.</span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; line-height: 13.5pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; line-height: 13.5pt;">But, I think she was altogether too dogmatic –
a warrior on a mission.</span></div>
<div style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 13.5pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 13.5pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><b>Thatcherism</b></span></div>
<div style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 13.5pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 13.5pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">So what of Thatcherism itself?
Thatcher’s greatness we are told comes in part because she had her very
own ism. What other Prime Minister can
boast that?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 13.5pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; line-height: 13.5pt;"> </span></div>
<div style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 13.5pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">Nigel Lawson described Thatcherism as “Free
markets, financial discipline, firm control over public expenditure, tax-cuts,
nationalism, Victorian self-help, privatisation and a dash of populism.”</span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 13.5pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 13.5pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">In truth I don’t think Thatcherism was so great -
in fact, if you break it down, it was rather quirky and odd . It was a curious mixture of the radical and
the conservative; of the authoritarian and the liberal. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 13.5pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 13.5pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">In many ways I think it was actually the </span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">death
throes of a generation forged by the second world war.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 13.5pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 13.5pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">I well remember her ostentatiously putting a tissue over the
rather funky one world design, which had replaced the Union Jack on the tail of
a model British Airways jet. She was a
character of contrasts, a politician who delivered for the country and one who also did great harm. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 13.5pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 13.5pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">She stood up to excessive and undemocratic union power and to
other vested interests. And let it not
be forgotten she stood up to fascist neo-colonialism from an ugly Argentinian
regime in the South Atlantic. But she was also enormously divisive. At home at times she went to war with her own
people – the enemy within. This was not
the greatness of a British Lincoln say, who defeated the divisions that needed defeated then held a hand out to rebuild. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 13.5pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 13.5pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">Yes, I see Thatcher as a qualified success. She is now owned by the Historians, as someone
said today, and they will see the good and the bad in her legacy.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 13.5pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 13.5pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">I think by 1979 the writing was already on the wall - for excessive and
undemocratic union power - for politically
motivated strikes - for high inflation. However, Thatcher must take credit for her
determination, bravery and leadership. Her
single minded nature and clarity of thought made sure things that were often
challenging were in fact achieved <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 13.5pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 13.5pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">But, I think she also brought unnecessary division - the enemy within
and a seeming lack of empathy for those not with her - a warrior who seemed to
see things in black and white.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 13.5pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 13.5pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">And let us not forget that much of her power came because Labour
imploded and was unelectable in this period and the opposition was split between the
centre-left Alliance and a confused Labour party.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 13.5pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 13.5pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">Personally, I would rather have seen the Alliance break through in 1983
or Thatcher fall during the Westland crisis in 1986. I think Thatcher had made her contribution by
then and we would have been better served to consolidate and build in an
altogether more constructive way by the toughness and tenderness of the Liberal
and SDP alliance.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
GHmltnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08420475365803049630noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-210813585213368870.post-90679146685736839942013-01-25T17:25:00.000+00:002013-01-25T17:25:26.185+00:00What Lincoln said to Manchester<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7TQDFfHtkNYzofr5rVlACFP5EhRZY0aeyJf9zKbBen28nO2X2J4RSLZPQJT0xrRlvEu5DSmd82N-AhNAvmLMAFBDCUeW5iIjkb2iSJhYznxI3_3h68ip2EQw0VP-fkm4491dwkpCcnVg/s1600/download.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><br /><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7TQDFfHtkNYzofr5rVlACFP5EhRZY0aeyJf9zKbBen28nO2X2J4RSLZPQJT0xrRlvEu5DSmd82N-AhNAvmLMAFBDCUeW5iIjkb2iSJhYznxI3_3h68ip2EQw0VP-fkm4491dwkpCcnVg/s1600/download.jpg" /></a></div>
<div class="Bug6200" style="background-color: white; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 19.1875px;">
Written this week 150 years ago by Abraham Lincoln to the Lancashire mill workers who, at considerable cost to themselves, supported the Union against the secessionist South (and source of cotton - the lifeblood of their industry). </div>
<div class="Bug6200" style="background-color: white; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 19.1875px;">
<br /></div>
<div class="Bug6200" style="background-color: white; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 19.1875px;">
"... I know and deeply deplore the sufferings which the working people of Manchester and in all Europe are called to endure in this crisis. It has been often and studiously represented that the attempt to overthrow this Government which was built on the foundation of human rights, and to substitute for it one which should rest exclusively on the basis of slavery, was unlikely to obtain the favour of Europe.<br />
<div style="line-height: 1.5em; margin-bottom: 0.5em; margin-top: 0.4em;">
Through the action of disloyal citizens, the working people of Europe have been subjected to a severe trial for the purpose of forcing their sanction to that attempt. Under the circumstances I cannot but regard your decisive utterances on the question as an instance of sublime Christian heroism which has not been surpassed in any age or in any country. It is indeed an energetic and re-inspiring assurance of the inherent truth and of the ultimate and universal triumph of justice, humanity and freedom.</div>
I hail this interchange of sentiments, therefore, as an augury that, whatever else may happen, whatever misfortune may befall your country or my own, the peace and friendship which now exists between the two nations will be, as it shall be my desire to make them, perpetual."</div>
<div class="Bug6200" style="background-color: white; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 19.1875px;">
<br /></div>
<div class="templatequotecite" style="background-color: white; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1em; margin-top: 0px; padding-left: 2em;">
Abraham Lincoln, <cite style="font-size: 11px; font-style: inherit;">19 January 1863</cite></div>
GHmltnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08420475365803049630noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-210813585213368870.post-4986274384747806562013-01-24T03:01:00.000+00:002013-01-25T12:17:38.909+00:00That was quite a speech Dave<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLkA84JIs_66UxU1bDBVN1WCC3z68pynWUEKgY8uV7G7AHpXAzojSQdrioQgu07yzNG8dgFqjbpLD1BZKgRH2ARlXpfiDuM-wi9cKxw00DWi_3fkyYdgKY9CrxcS-MEqioEoLwFL0fZQ4/s1600/David-Cameron-after-speec-008.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="192" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLkA84JIs_66UxU1bDBVN1WCC3z68pynWUEKgY8uV7G7AHpXAzojSQdrioQgu07yzNG8dgFqjbpLD1BZKgRH2ARlXpfiDuM-wi9cKxw00DWi_3fkyYdgKY9CrxcS-MEqioEoLwFL0fZQ4/s320/David-Cameron-after-speec-008.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
Well that was quite a speech Mr Cameron. I guess it will take a few days for me to fully absorb what I think it all means for the future but some things strike me straight away.<br />
<br />
On Twitter I asked whether it was Cameron's '95 Theses on the Reformation of Europe' (with thanks to Archbishop Cramner) or was it purely about Tory electoral prospects? I think the truth is it is rather more about Tory electoral prospects and outflanking the UKIP.<br />
<br />
Interestingly, Lord Ashcroft - the Tory benefactor, pollster and strategist - points out that when they talk about Europe they lose. Well, we'll see, but I do think their position will unravel somewhat and its still all about the economy stupid!<br />
<br />
I think the Conservative's position will unravel because we have no idea exactly what powers Cameron would like to repatriate or the consequences. There is in some quarters a view that Europe takes over and tells us what to do but only 6.8% of UK primary legislation and 14.1% of secondary legislation
has anything to do with implementing EU obligations - and these are not EU diktats but policy that is agreed to, approved of and signed off by UK officials.<br />
<br />
The fact is Euro-scepticism plays to an idea of Europe that "we are with Europe but not of it" to quote Churchill.<br />
<br />
One of the really interesting things today was that if you substituted the word Scotland for the words 'Britain' or 'United Kingdom' it could have been Alex Salmond talking. In fact the Scottish nationalist community has been quite taken with the irony of the whole thing and what Cameron is saying about the pros and cons of holding an EU referendum! But this should not surprise us because both the Conservatives and SNP are nationalists.<br />
<br />
The other question I posed on Twitter was 'what effect will this have on the Scottish independence referendum?' <br />
<br />
That remains to be seen but while there are some huge ironies in hearing David Cameron sound like Alex Salmond, I don't think it changes the fundamentals of the debate very much. In fact, I believe this makes the case for Scottish independence still weaker.<br />
<br />
In 2012 there was much debate about whether an independent Scotland could remain automatically within the EU. While the process and basis for a separate Scotland becoming a member state are unclear there is little doubt we would take our place. However, the possibility that you could have an independent Scotland within the EU and England & Wales outside the EU is not a good proposition. Where would this leave the currency? This would not be a good place for Scotland's main market and trading partner to be, and what of the Schengen agreement on borders?<br />
<br />
The fact is that to be a viable proposition Scotland needs to be part of the EU. While I am a strong supporter of the EU, the rest of the UK does not need the EU as much as an independent Scotland would. And, as I said, the prospect of our main market being on the different side of the EU's borders is something of a nightmare scenario - and it wouldn't do much for the 'social union' either.<br />
<br />
I have argued before that our interests are best served by British unity, collective interests abroad like the EU and decentralisation at home.<br />
<br />
The commentator David Torrance said something this morning I thought may yet prove to be quite significant. He said, "PM's position vis-vis EU is basically devo-max for the UK. And if that doesn't work , then he wants independence." Yes, David Cameron is arguing for a looser connection with Europe but to remain inside none the less. In this I sense the possibility of a changing view in England to the British constitution. The parallels between the EU debate and the constitutional argument will not be lost on everyone. The awareness of English nationalism, the value of regional autonomy and how these things can exist within something bigger is growing. The fact that the Scots seem to be largely opposed to independence but want strong devolution within the UK is also becoming increasingly clear. All these things add up to the possibility that maybe, just maybe, something that was unthinkable a few years ago could soon be thinkable. That is that people in England may come to accept a federal solution for the UK is a good thing.<br />
<br />
This is important because today another poll put support for independence below 30% and the numbers supporting increased devolution much higher.<br />
<br />
If independence is voted down in 2014 we can get on and take the devolution settlement further. We can start to work towards making devolution part of a wider decentralised settlement in the UK. How this develops is the more important question - not independence!<br />
<br />
Meanwhile the European question remains and I fear David Cameron has opened a Pandora's Box. I'm not at all sure where we are headed but I'm not sure he knows either! My best guess is we won't hold this referendum for I don't believe the Tories will win the next election. But, If we do hold a referendum I think we'll vote to stay in - by the skin of our teeth. I can only hope that the re-engineering of Europe, because that will happen in the next few years whatever course we take, is one that benefits us all. <br />
<br />
<br />
<br />GHmltnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08420475365803049630noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-210813585213368870.post-38219290989212913172012-12-15T12:37:00.001+00:002012-12-15T12:40:57.117+00:00Gun crime - what should be done?This is Aaron Sorkin's comment on major gun crime in the US.<br />
<br />
Taken from the West Wing episode 'In the Shadow of two gunmen (part 1)'. CJ Cregg, the White House Press Secretary, addresses a press conference after the President and members of his party have been shot.<br />
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<br />GHmltnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08420475365803049630noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-210813585213368870.post-18481680977697128532012-12-08T08:00:00.000+00:002012-12-08T12:19:46.201+00:00We're doomed - America is finished, Europe's a basket case and the Empire is dead<br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: small;">There has been plenty of
chatter amongst the McTwitterati of late about Scotland’s relationship with
Europe if we vote Yes in 2014.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: small;">The world is changing and the
canvas of nations being painted in <span style="font-size: small;">an</span> age of crisis is very different to
the past. This changing canvas cannot be
ignored <span style="font-size: small;">if </span>we are to consider where Scotland’s future place in the world might be. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: small;">Today the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-20606375" target="_blank">BBC news website reports</a>
that Winston Churchill’s 1946 Zurich speech has been featured on The European
Council’s YouTube channel. There are,
believe it or not, those who regard Churchill as one of the fathers of the EU.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: small;">Why?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: small;">It is because in Zurich, in the
aftermath of the second World War he said, "We must build a kind of United
States of Europe” to “turn our backs upon the horrors of the past" and
"look to the future".<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: small;">However, he also said six
months before that in Fulton Missouri, "If the population of the
English-speaking Commonwealth be added to that of the United States with all
that such co-operation implies in the air, on the sea, all over the globe and
in science and in industry, and in moral forces, there will be no quivering,
precarious balance of power to offer its temptation to ambition or adventure."
(This was his famous “Iron Curtain” speech.)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: small;">For Churchill believed that peace
in the post war world and stability in the face of communism would be
guaranteed by three things - the United States, a united Europe and the British
Empire. He was a great European but he
was also an Imperialist (born in the 19th century) and an Atlanticist (he had
an American mother). He saw Britain as
part of Europe but not of Europe.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: small;">Well, that was 1946 and this is
now. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: small;">In the future, the USA is not
going to be the world power it once was.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: small;">She must look to the Pacific
and China in the east every bit as much as she must look to the Atlantic and
Russia in the west.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: small;">The Empire is long since dead
and the Commonwealth is not what it once was.
In fact the Commonwealth may not outlive the present Queen by much. It certainly won’t exist in the same form as
the last 40 or 50 years.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: small;">Europe has an uncertain future
as the Euro currency union seems to have failed so spectacularly.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: small;">The world we are headed for
will not be a world of fixed blocs, rather it will be a world of more transient
treaties and alliances. And these alliances
may be with peoples we don’t necessarily have naturally close alignments with. These will not always be homogeneous
groupings.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: small;">Britain’s links with the east through
our mercantile past and through some of our large companies (many of whom have
strong links in the far east) will be very important. Our trade with European markets will continue
to be a cornerstone of our economy and <span style="font-size: small;">t</span>rade and links
with China will be vital both politically and economically.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: small;">While the United States will
cease to be the world’s super power it will remain hugely important for many
many years to come. A close relationship
with her will be a lynch-pin of stability but we must be realistic about the ‘special
relationship’ as America has more diversified interests than Europe.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: small;">We also need to contain the
middle-east and support peace where we can.
I say support and maintain because the middle east has been a powder keg
for two millennia and I don’t see that changing anytime soon. However, I sense that if there are to be
dangers that threaten us or troubles that will spill over into wider conflict
they will somehow emanate from th<span style="font-size: small;">is region</span>.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: small;">This means I think there is
still an important place for collective security. True, NATO is an alliance founded in the Cold
War but times move on and the landscape changes.
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: small;">Denmark, a successful
comparable country that Scotland often looks to as a model of what we could be
is interesting in this case. Denmark
sought neutrality for 200 years and to free herself from the armed camps of the
empires of Europe. But she was overrun
by Germany in the 1940s and suffered under occupation. The war means many in Denmark
regretted they were not part of something bigger. Today many in Denmark feel collective security
is very important to them and NATO remains popular. This doesn’t mean they believe the Cold War
is still with us but they value collective security against any enemies –
whether they are known or are yet to be known in an uncertain future.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: small;">Today, Danish foreign policy is
founded upon four <span style="font-size: small;">pillars</span>: the United Nations, NATO, the EU, and Nordic
cooperation. She is a <span style="font-size: small;">pretty</span> committed
member of NATO – which isn’t true of all members – even though she is a small
nation. Denmark is also a member of the Organisation for Security and
Cooperation in Europe, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development,
the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the World Trade Organisation.</span><span style="font-size: small;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: small;">She is a mercantile nation who
believes in free trade, collective action and collective security. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: small;">This means I think there is an
important place for collective security for Scotland in the future. I think this should be as part of what we
currently call NATO but that it will continue to move on to take a post Cold
War form.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: small;">I think also in this uncertain
world fragmentation does not help peace or prosperity.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: small;">A say in how the globe deals
with the forces that affect us is important.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">Top table<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: small;">I have limited care for a permanent
place on the UN security council, but a place at the top table with the G8
matters. Being part of the UK which has such a place is therefore vital.</span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: small;">Consider this picture. T<span style="font-size: small;">his is the G8 at <span style="font-size: small;">C</span>amp David earlier this year.</span> It is a small world and being part of the G8 is to have very personal input with the <span style="font-size: small;">7 other</span> men and women who take the fundamental decisions that affect the entire world. This is much more than mere tokenism, and while power can often be subverted by greater forces, having a seat at the G8 is meaningful influence. </span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: small;">Free trade is vital to us if we
are to have growth around the world once more and if we are to adapt to and
make the most of the opportunities brought by the changing balance of economic
power across the planet.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: small;">Preserving the UK and what is
in effect an established and successful single market and currency union is
also important. The EU is uncertain, and
our relationship with it is also uncertain.
I hope it survives with us as part of it because <span style="font-size: small;">I</span> think the EU has
probably done more to ensure peace in Europe after the war than any other
body. However, Europe’s precise course is
uncertain. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: small;">And since the UK operates as a
single market and a currency union and we are not envisaging changing that bit, it
seems all the better to have some political say in it and some chance of
influencing affairs.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: small;">But I believe this is best
served by the UK following a system of government which allows for the
expression of the different interests and identities within it and, at the same
time, has the influence and strength which comes with the common purpose that I
have been describing. This means a distribution of powers among the nations and
regions of the UK, for joint action where we need it, and for significant
democratic choice and opportunity where that best serves our interests. This should be combined with the
responsibility that comes from significant financial powers. Whether you call this subsidiarity, decentralisation or federal government it should,
I hope, go some way towards reducing the alienation many feel in the political
process and re-connecting political power to people and communities.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: small;">In the world of the 21<sup>st</sup>
century with its transient alliances and changing balances of power, being cut
adrift as part of the fragmentation of nations will not serve Scottish foreign interests
or trade well. <span style="font-size: small;">That way is </span> best served by
British unity, collective international interests and subsidiarity or decentralisation
at home.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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GHmltnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08420475365803049630noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-210813585213368870.post-28502322951348716912012-12-03T13:20:00.000+00:002012-12-03T15:44:49.579+00:00Britain - more than the sum of its parts<br />
<br />
On Friday I went to hear Jim Wallace speak. He spoke of many things including how he believes Scottish devolution should be developed. As part of this I thought he was particularly eloquent in his passage about why Scotland should remain part of the UK. He not only made the case well but he touched the emotions of his audience - a mixed one of proud Scots and people from other parts of the British Isles.<br />
<br />
There are many different ways into this argument; cultural, political and economic - but on the night Jim Wallace quoted this passage from the 2006 Steel Commission. <br />
<br />
"The United Kingdom has been one of the great success stories of<br />
the world. The Union between England and Scotland joined<br />
together nations who had been warring with each other for<br />
hundreds of years. It took a small island country on the fringe of<br />
Europe to a position where its influence covered a quarter of the<br />
globe. It established a formidable commercial, industrial and<br />
financial position. It spawned new nations in all parts of the<br />
globe. Its language has become the lingua franca of the world. It<br />
developed ideas of liberty, democracy and the rule of law which<br />
were widely emulated. Its people produced much of the<br />
philosophy and many of the ideas which shaped the modern<br />
world. The contribution of Scots in philosophy, in science and<br />
engineering, in medicine, in administration and finance was<br />
disproportionately high. For example, it was a Scot, William<br />
Paterson, who was the principal driving force in the establishment<br />
of the Bank of England (1694), before playing an influential role<br />
in the establishment of the Bank of Scotland (1695). The Union<br />
enabled Scotland to punch above its weight on the world stage,<br />
and allowed Britain to be more than the sum of its parts."<br />
<br />
As we debate our future it is important to understand who we are and what we have got here in Britain. This is of course a historical argument but it captures something of what Britain is and of how Scotland works - extremely effectively - within that.GHmltnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08420475365803049630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-210813585213368870.post-54390267546716349182012-11-29T01:37:00.001+00:002012-11-29T10:40:26.138+00:00Who is the best Doctor?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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It is a great TV programme, loved the world over by millions including me. Dr Who is a marvellous creation and thanks to re-generation can keep on re-inventing itself and changing the actor who plays the lead role. But which Doctor is the best Doctor?<br />
<br />
Well, it's another one which is a matter of personal opinion rather than a question which comes with a definitive answer. It's also one driven very much by the era you probably became first entranced by the Lord of Time.<br />
<br />
For what it is worth here, in reverse order is how I rate them. What do you think? Leave a comment! <br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-composition-fill-color: rgba(175, 192, 227, 0.230469); -webkit-composition-frame-color: rgba(77, 128, 180, 0.230469); -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.296875);"><b><br /></b></span>
<b style="-webkit-composition-fill-color: rgba(175, 192, 227, 0.230469); -webkit-composition-frame-color: rgba(77, 128, 180, 0.230469); -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.292969);">10 Sylvester McCoy</b><br />
<br />
One of the two Doctors who played the role when I didn't watch much TV. But by this time Doctor Who had lost a lot of its magic and much of its edge. For me the programme had become too silly and surreal.<br />
<br />
<b>9 Peter Davison</b><br />
<br />
Another one from an era when I didn't watch much TV but also another Doctor who lacked an edge and wasn't hard enough for me. The second of the two Doctors who don't really count for me. <br />
<br />
<b>8 William Hartnell</b><br />
<br />
The original and on-screen the day after JFK was assassinated. Very dated and before my time but the original and with him the brilliant theme tune.<br />
<b><br /></b><b>7 Matt Smith</b><br />
<br />
The current Doctor does a decent job and is a credible Doctor. I don't think he has fully established himself yet and I don't think the stories are as strong as classic late 60s and 70s Doctor Who or the writing as strong as the often poignant Ecclestone or David Tennant era. I also think he is a little upstaged by the wonderful Amy Pond.<br />
<br />
<b>6 Colin Baker</b><br />
<br />
A return to Baker-esque form after a weak period. Baker was a fine Doctor who didn't get enough episodes at a time when the BBC were toying with dumping the series. He also suffers with me as he is another Doctor on screen when I didn't watch much TV. <br />
<br />
<b>5 David Tennant</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
For an awful lot of people he is Doctor Who. Along with Tom Baker he is probably the most popular Doctor of the series. He made the role very much his own and has oodles of charm. For me he isn't quite dark or quite hard enough, though the stone angels are a particularly inspirational and horrifying monster. I think he also suffers for being after my era. Others will place him higher.<br />
<br />
<b>4 Christopher Eccleston</b><br />
<br />
I thought he was an utterly inspired choice for new Doctor Who. An almost perfect mix of quirky edginess, eccentricity, unconventional rebelliousness and a passionate idealistic heart. He plays the loneliness and drive for justice almost perfectly. And it gets it just right for a new era. And yet he did it all too briefly, was perhaps too intense and came to be eclipsed by David Tennant. <br />
<br />
<b>3 Patrick Troughton</b><br />
<br />
The first modern Doctor. He played the role just before my time but I think he is well worth a re-appraisal by many fans. With Troughton all the classic monsters are there and like Ecclestone he has a dark, eccentric edginess. He began to set the standard for the programmes charming malevolent charisma. (He is also a great priest in The Omen)<br />
<br />
<b>2 Jon Pertwee</b><br />
<br />
The first Doctor I saw a lot of and the first to catch my imagination. He is a bit of a Dandy and a poseur and he has a very silly car. But, as I remember him, he had truly scary adventures with some truly scary monsters. His encounters with The Master are brilliant and in the Brigadier and UNIT he has excellent allies. <br />
<br />
<b>1 Tom Baker</b><br />
<br />
For me Tom Baker is the best Doctor. he made the role his own with his long scarf and booming, almost Brian Blessed like, voice. Like Pertwee his adventures are scary and the suspense filled ending of each episode rarely disappoints. The classic stories are his like Genesis of the Daleks, The Keeper of Traken and Pyramids of Mars! <br />
<br />
And I've not even begun to discuss Sarah Jane or K9!<br />
<br />
<b>PS </b><br />
<br />
I'm not counting Paul McGann or Peter Cushing who respectively played the Doctor in a one off TV special and in a film.<br />
<br />
And I'm sure the Doctor is a Liberal if he ever votes on earth or if the have them within the Council of the Time Lords. <br />
<br />
Well that's my opinion. It probably dates me. I'm sure you disagree with me. Why not add your thoughts or memories as a comment. <br />
<br />GHmltnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08420475365803049630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-210813585213368870.post-92071793416014960632012-11-12T01:18:00.000+00:002012-11-12T01:49:13.610+00:00Nate Silver is a genius!<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVSQxbIvCO5RQHq5D9_sc_94DcGoTF-AkafU7UhzEJmdFe2jedj0iZ9uzsAYSUuigtgmeeTl31ilgUaWCQZcBtfh_4fySPI97e-o46Bt1N0a5cA_30V55jEoonNYJVRs5rirfMelf-5QE/s1600/121107013229-nate-silver-fivethirtyeight-story-top.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="218" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVSQxbIvCO5RQHq5D9_sc_94DcGoTF-AkafU7UhzEJmdFe2jedj0iZ9uzsAYSUuigtgmeeTl31ilgUaWCQZcBtfh_4fySPI97e-o46Bt1N0a5cA_30V55jEoonNYJVRs5rirfMelf-5QE/s320/121107013229-nate-silver-fivethirtyeight-story-top.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
As a political junkie I have been closely following the US election these last few months.<br />
<br />
A key part of my regular reading has been Nate Silver's <a href="http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/" target="_blank">Fivethirtyeight</a> blog attached to the New York Times..<br />
<br />
Nate Silver is a statistician and a geek, I'm sure his alter ego has a starring role on Big Bang Theory. He made a bit of a name for him by building a statistical model for predicting baseball results. Following success with that he turned to politics and predicted the US election incredibly accurately in 2008. I discovered him towards the end of that campaign.<br />
<br />
Now lets be clear - Nate Silver is a genius. And so are the guys at <a href="http://votamatic.org/" target="_blank">Votamatic</a> and a couple of other stats based poll analysis sights. They got their predictions on what was going to happen in the US elections absolutely spot on. (And that by the way is the point - he was giving statistical probability of given events happening based on the data and a multitude of factors coming together)<br />
<br />
I can't believe how
right Nate Silver was right about everything in this election. Not only that but also how he described accurately the
shape of the race at every stage and identified the underlying cause and
effects. And in his use of data he was able to show what was happening not just give a politically loaded narrative or a best guess gut feel.<br />
<br />
I did wonder if there was some under counting of shy Republicans - if Romney was going to do a Bush and pull out the numbers on election day. But the polling was scientific and their statistically significant samples called it right. It was a couple of the Republican polls who got it all wrong by trying to weight the electorate. <br />
Because not only did Silver describe the race at every turn perfectly but his understanding about different polls and how they
work is first class. This added another dimension. And he explains everything, comprehensively and lucidly.<br />
<br />
Quite frankly throughout the race if you wanted to really understand what was going on all you had to read was Nate Silver.<br />
<br />
And he didn't do that awful thing American's do and say everything is a toss up or too close to call. Silver told us what was happening and how probable each outcome was - state by state - day by day. <br />
<br />
Using data dispassionately - and patiently waiting for the numbers to come through - Nate could explain how much difference each debate made, what effect the conventions had - even individual speeches and accounted for economic factors as well as noting any trend or momentum in an ever changing environment.<br />
<br />
The accurate enlightenment of the body of work by Nate and his team was breath taking to behold. Not to mention how it exposed douchebag in chief Karl Rove as being a bag of spin and
partisan narrative.<br />
<br />
Political punditry may never be the same again.<br />
<br />
Data and evidence based commentary!<br />
<br />
All hail King Nate!<br />
GHmltnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08420475365803049630noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-210813585213368870.post-74990422857476614462012-11-11T13:29:00.005+00:002012-11-11T14:38:40.854+00:00What does Remembrance Day mean for me?<div class="MsoNormal">
<i>The following is much of a post I wrote last year. I thought it might be worth posting again today.</i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Remembrance Days I attended at school in Edinburgh in the 1970s left a big impression on me.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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First
it was some of the teachers. Several had seen action. One, a French
teacher who was hopeless at keeping order, had been at Arnhem and was a
bone fide war hero. Another had been at Monte Cassino. One of the
primary teachers had been imprisoned by the Japanese and bore the mental
scars as a result. Another French teacher had taken a shrapnel wound.
And Bill Knox, the legendary and ubiquitous janny (janitor or
care-taker if that term means nothing to you) had been evacuated from
Dunkirk after a close shave. Bill proudly wore his medal ribbons on his
janitor’s uniform every day. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
It
was obvious that Remembrance meant something to these men. Sometimes a
former pupil would attend the ceremony and they would stand in solemn
thought considering their fallen classmates. Once I saw the Deputy Head
– a tough Aberdonian – escort one of these veterans who he had fought
with to the memorial with his wreath. I saw their faces – a stern
stoicism masking deep emotion – as they walked out in the cold.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The
second thing that affected me was the war memorial at the school with
its names covering all four sides of a rather fine stone needle. I
stood and studied them more than once during my school days. These were
young men just like me – just like me! They came from exactly the same
place, from exactly the same background, with exactly the same life
experience as me – just a couple of generations earlier. But for the
Grace of God...</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjT9Aw_H1hrP_pIUCB2lBsGjnjjkQ5pPnAdp7tPsEjApxWeMkL8UoSaQ-qQOMOTEVhHqoVkHbMSwm2qB10TH1tChgCHP49-jNs23xSqupOXrIfdgVTzJxp-ly_2l9YzDOSSZ8ddLKllpBg/s1600/images.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjT9Aw_H1hrP_pIUCB2lBsGjnjjkQ5pPnAdp7tPsEjApxWeMkL8UoSaQ-qQOMOTEVhHqoVkHbMSwm2qB10TH1tChgCHP49-jNs23xSqupOXrIfdgVTzJxp-ly_2l9YzDOSSZ8ddLKllpBg/s1600/images.jpg" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
These
had been wars of national survival with a total mobilisation of the
country. If I had been alive I would have been there and so would my
friends. Something struck me that these boys deserved to be remembered.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Finally,
as a young man I read a lot of history – I even went on to study it at
university. I read a lot about what these men went through, what they
faced, what conditions were like. I read the horrific combat
statistics. I read the accounts of battle. I read the soldiers’
stories. Many deaths were heroic but often they were just sad or
tragic!</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
My
Granny also left an impression on me. Her husband (my Grandfather who I
never knew) Hugh Young had been on the Somme (in one of the earliest
tanks in fact). He came back, but many of their friends and family did
not. Remembrance Day meant a lot to my Granny – or the 11<sup>th</sup> hour on the 11<sup>th</sup> day of the 11<sup>th</sup> month as she called it.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
My
Granny and the teachers at my school left and indelible impression on
me. Remembrance Day was about remembering the people who had died and
it was about raising money to support those who had been scarred by war.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I
heard a guy on the radio form the White Poppy movement. Now pacifism
is a laudable and absolutely legitimate position to hold and to campaign
for. But this man was ungenerous, mean spirited, ill informed and
talked complete and utter guff.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In
a funny way I have never understood those who say Remembrance Day is
militaristic. Because the day focuses on remembering the people who
have died I have always thought pacifists and those who are
uncomfortable about our foreign adventures should be amongst the most
passionate exponents and participants in Remembrance Day. It is after
all a day we focus on the true cost of war and the pity of war!</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
It is about remembrance whether we approve or disapprove of any given war.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Kate Higgins told the story of the origins of Remembrance Day and the Poppy in her blog <a href="http://burdzeyeview.wordpress.com/2011/11/10/poppy-cock/">'Poppy Cock'</a>
earlier this week. I think she is spot on in what she says. The one
big difference is that the meaning of symbols and ceremonies do evolve,
like language, over time. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
So, I always wear the poppy because I believe:</div>
<ol>
<li>We should never forget what happened in two world wars in the 20<sup>th</sup> century and try to learn the lessons from them.</li>
<li>In remembrance of those who died in those wars – even if not known personally.</li>
</ol>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This means thinking of the 2<sup>nd</sup>
war which was a war of national survival for us – a war which pulled us
and so many other countries into a conflict with tyranny. This means
thinking of the 1<sup>st</sup> war where the slaughter was on an almost
industrial scale – a much more complex conflict to understand but still a
war of national survival although with a real sense of millions dying
in the war games of a ruling elite. This means thinking of the young
who had their lives torn up to face fear and for many of them sacrifice.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
Today
wars are not of national survival and sometimes appear morally
ambiguous. Iraq was wrong! Afghanistan was probably the right thing to
do but has become less clear cut as time has gone on. <br />
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Nevertheless,
these are security actions and it is important that they are undertaken
and more to the point that we have men and women who are ready and
willing to go into combat if called on. And we should remember those
people who die and we should look after those who are maimed or suffer
mental torment afterwards.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Remembrance Day – lest we forget!</div>
GHmltnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08420475365803049630noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-210813585213368870.post-81999763667316841992012-11-04T18:13:00.001+00:002012-11-11T14:42:08.132+00:00Which is the best Bond film ever?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_nHKH_ZGbC2a3jpORFy3OhcqYaLa5hLxHtVb9KqM0wceOK6DTgKYRw1jit2w3863YXSlrn1OXrefRmFELm3gvVzc_p75uc6y3fhAAfY5sPukpIdAnvu_Sc55VAIzK3cEEPI_e9lWouDw/s1600/Bond.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_nHKH_ZGbC2a3jpORFy3OhcqYaLa5hLxHtVb9KqM0wceOK6DTgKYRw1jit2w3863YXSlrn1OXrefRmFELm3gvVzc_p75uc6y3fhAAfY5sPukpIdAnvu_Sc55VAIzK3cEEPI_e9lWouDw/s1600/Bond.jpg" /></a></div>
I went to see Skyfall this week. It is an absolutely fantastic film. But is it the best? Where does it sit in the pantheon of a great series of films?<br />
<br />
Here is how I currently rate the Bond films from least to best. It is of course a personal view and some of the placings will be a bit quirky to me (and I may even have got some of the details mixed up). Have a read and tell me what <i><b>you</b></i> think!<br />
<br />
<b>23 For your eyes only</b><br />
<br />
It feels more like a TV movie than a top Bond film.<br />
<br />
<b>22 Quantum of Solace</b><br />
<br />
It is trying to be Bourne not Bond. And it's all action and therefore lacks characterisation and story somewhat. Good car chases though! (if a little like something out of Grand Turismo)<br />
<br />
<b>21 Moonraker</b><br />
<br />
It is a good fun Bond but not a great. In fact I am never entirely sure
if Moore's slightly camp, played a bit for laughs Bond altogether
counts as James Bond to be honest.<br />
<br />
<b>20 View to a kill</b><br />
Same as Moonraker - I just find View to a kill a little more memorable.<br />
<br />
<b>19 Octopussy</b><br />
<br />
It starts well and has great exotic Indian locations, mood and atmosphere. The story line and characters are good but it ends up being another that feels like a TV movie - filmed on a railway line near Peterborough masquerading as East Germany.<br />
<br />
<b>18 Man with the Golden Gun</b><br />
<br />
Decent enough Bond and good villain's assistant, but it's a Moore - so at the weaker end.<br />
<br />
<b>17 The world is not enough</b><br />
<br />
Brosnan was a decent Bond. He has that cruel quality. But I think he suffers from not having as good scripts as some of the others - though the films are all well made and enjoyable.<br />
<br />
<b>16 Die another day</b><br />
<br />
As above<br />
<br />
<b>15 Tomorrow never dies</b><br />
<br />
As above again<br />
<br />
<b>14 Licence to kill (they should have called it Licence Revoked)</b><br />
<br />
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Dalton is a great actor. And he plays the theme of revenge very well. He is a better actor than Brosnan, though I think Brosnan is a better fit for Bond than Dalton. Dalton is altogether too sympathetic and sensitive.<br />
<br />
<b>13 Dr No</b><br />
<br />
This is a great spy thriller and begins to bring in some of the elements of classic Bond but altogether it is rather dated and doesn't stand the test of time for me. Since the genre was just getting started it is a bit shallower in some of the Bond elements compared with later films.<br />
<br />
<b>12 Goldeneye</b><br />
<br />
Brosnan's best Bond<br />
<br />
<b>11 From Russia with Love</b><br />
<br />
Again a bit dated otherwise it would be higher. A great thriller and Lotte Lenya (Rosa Kleb) is one of the great villains.<br />
<br />
<b>10 The Living Daylights</b> <br />
<br />
Dalton's best one. A really enjoyable film and great story. I enjoyed it a lot and have seen it a couple of times. The chase on the Cello through the snow, the fight hanging out the back of a Hercules and the Mujaheddin when they were enemies of the Russians and before anyone had ever heard of Al Quaeda are all memorable moments in a memorable film.<br />
<br />
<b>9 Casino Royale</b><br />
<br />
Daniel Craig's first outing. Craig is the best Bond since Connery. He has that sense of isolation, of matter of fact ruthlessness, of being resourceful and hard as nails - and yet flawed and vulnerable, with a sense of a suppressed character lying dormant behind those piercing blue eyes. It is also a strong story with a good piece of personal history to James Bond.<br />
<br />
<b>8 The spy who loved me</b><br />
<br />
A good one from Moore. Good locations, a good female character, Jaws and the underwater Lotus (though the Lotus is not my favourite Bond car)<br />
<br />
<b>7 Live and let die</b><br />
<br />
A personal favourite and one of the best theme tunes. Solitaire is one of the best female characters in the series and the voodoo storyline has real menace. I think I'm also right in saying the funny southern American cop appears for the first time in this one!<br />
<br />
<b>6 Diamonds are forever</b><br />
<br />
Not everyone's favourite but one of mine! Its a great story with some great character parts. I think it also has my favourite Bond girls.<br />
<br />
<b>5 Thunderball</b><br />
<br />
We are now getting to quintessential Bond films here. The awesome taking of the Vulcan bomber, the man in the mask, the Health club scenes, and the menace of an evil organisation trying to hold the world to ransom. Is this the one with the brilliant, surprise elimination of the failed Spectre executive in their leather and chrome lair? I think a couple of others are stronger only because I think they have slightly better endings.<br />
<br />
<b>4 Skyfall</b><br />
<br />
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The only later one I am placing with the quintessential Bonds. As a stand alone film in terms of characterisation, the themes it explores and the inter relationships this is probably the best film. It also has some quite stunning cinematography of London, Shanghai and Glencoe. But it doesn't quite out Bond the top three.<br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
<b>3 On her majesty's secret service</b><br />
<br />
Lazenby in his sole outing - but this is still quintessential Bond. The drive by shooting of Tracey, the genuine sadness of the scene and the Louis Armstrong sound track make this oh so memorable. And I haven't even mentioned the mountain top villain's lair, the sky chase and a particularly fiendish plot to take over the world. This is classic Bond and a great spy thriller.<br />
<br />
<b>2 You only live twice</b><br />
<br />
Others will probably place this lower but I love this film. Ninjas, a futuristic spy chief's base, a great entrance by Bond - and it has a villain's lair inside a mountain with a mono rail and a piranha invested pool - what more do you want!! Deserves a high billing alone for Donald Pleasance uttering the lines "good bye - meester Bond!"<br />
<br />
<b>1 Goldfinger </b><br />
<br />
The quintessential Bond.<br />
<br />
If you don't believe me go and watch it again!<br />
<br />
<br />
Well that's what I think.<br />
<br />
What do you think? <br />
GHmltnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08420475365803049630noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-210813585213368870.post-55613724365861780352012-09-16T15:52:00.001+01:002012-09-17T02:28:32.179+01:00Hillsborough and the British disease<div class="comment-body">
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I was genuinely shocked by the new report on Hillsborough this week.<br />
<br />
There was already a lot we kinda knew already. <br />
<br />
We knew why it happened and where the fault lay – The Taylor report was broadly correct in its assertions - both the initial report and the recommendations.<br />
<br />
We knew the Sun lied and published a disgraceful article and that was down to Kelvin Mackenzie personally.<br />
<br />
We knew the police tried to sanitise, spin and doctor statements – but it was shocking to see the full extent of it.<br />
<br />
We knew the authorities in the 1980s treated fans like cattle or criminals and viewed policing football as a public order matter not a safety one.<br />
<br />
We knew that the 3.15 cut off time for assuming everyone was dead or beyond help was almost certainly wrong.<br />
<br />
But I didn’t realise about the failure of the ambulance service and the major incident procedure.<br />
<br />
Shockingly and tragically we didn't know that the crush having happened the emergency services could maybe have / should have been able to save the lives of some of the 96 who were not killed straight away.<br />
<br />
I was shocked by the pomposity and apparent foolishness of the coroner’s report which I didn’t fully realise about. Shocked by the way it assessed the evidence and treated the fans. Read about it <a href="http://www.contrast.org/hillsborough/history/inquest.shtm" target="_blank">here</a><br />
<br />
I was shocked by the failure of the FA, Sheffield Wednesday and
presumably the local authority. Leppings Lane was a known death trap.
After Bradford we knew fences weren’t safe. The ground didn’t even have a
safety certificate!!!!<br />
<br />
Why did the FA use Hillsborough? And Sheffield Wednesday knew about
the problems of the inadequate turnstiles and the dangers of Leppings
Lane – its down sloping tunnel, its pen, its inadequate crowd number control, its propensity for crushing that put spectators in mortal danger - its near misses of tragedy at other games in the 1980s.<br />
<br />
While the police are – quite rightly- criticised, why are we not asking some very serious questions of the FA and Sheffield Wednesday. We forget how responsible they
appear and how foolish some of their actions seem in hindsight.<br />
<br />
The authorities failed the fans. The police - a body there to protect us - when push
came to shove, just protected itself. It was shocking – an outrage and profoundly undemocratic
and therefore disturbing.<br />
<br />
As Alex Thomson of Channel 4 News observed this seems to be the British pattern: disaster, flawed legal inquiry, cover-up, campaign, wilderness years, proper inquiry, and finally an apology. He cites Bloody Sunday, the Marchioness, the Mull of Kintyre and now Hillsborough as examples. Repeated
state cover-ups when the heat's on and careers are at stake. It is shocking and it is not good enough.<br />
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Which is why it is still important today and why
it is important to move onto the next stage in the pursuit of justice.<br />
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But lets not forget the FA and Sheffield Wednesday, who I think have as many questions to answer as South Yorkshire Police for the Hillsborough disaster.<br />
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GHmltnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08420475365803049630noreply@blogger.com0