Who are the SNP?

So the SNP seem to have the big mo in the Scottish election.  I'll confess right now that the SNP have always puzzled me.  Oh, I understand that if you are a believer in an Independent Scotland then the Scot Nats are for you, but what is the point of them beyond that, and who is supporting them and why?

This is my personal view of at least part of the answer to that question.

Something seems to be afoot! I can smell it in the air Charlie! I'm based in Edinburgh Pentlands - for long a bit of a Con-Lab marginal. Could it be that the SNP overtake them both on the inside lane? I have had 4 SNP leaflets delivered by hand (ie not freepost leaflets) - that has never happened before! That is more than from either Labour or Tory!  True Pentlands is interesting - the SNP were third but got a healthy enough vote.  In the 80s Keith Smith made it a 3 way marginal for the SDP Alliance.  This means to me, that if they can get organised there is scope for a third party - whether SNP or LibDem to do well in my seat and even take it!

But the SNP doing well in Edinburgh! Never really seen that before - although, on the back of the last Holyrood election, they showed signs of flickering into life. Edinburgh has seen a really strong Liberal Democrat vote before! At times it has seemed to me, in some rural and suburban parts, the Liberal Democrat vote and SNP vote seems interchangeable to some extent!  Certainly with our four party system - five if you count the Greens - Scottish voters are highly tactical.  Scots voters link up to keep Conservatives out! Scottish voters get behind whoever they think will do best for Scotland at different elections.

Hence the SNP do well at Holyrood elections and poorly at Westminster elections - kinda the other way around for the LibDems.


Certainly, as a LibDem, I feel the SNP at this election sound like a tartan SDP at times.  The emphasis on the environment, a positive outlook on Europe, a pragmatic centre left agenda - free from Labour dogma and grand-standing.  Apart from the discreet Independence bit, it could so easily be a Liberal Democrat agenda. 

However, slightly different people seem to support the SNP and they seem able to have a more broad appeal across Scotland than the Liberal Democrats.  They do well in traditional Labour areas and the west of Scotland - AND in rural and suburban areas too.


Someone once said to me the old tribal certainties are breaking down as the generations move on.  Fewer and fewer people are Labour or Conservative as a birth-right.  As we all become just a little middle class, so the SNP and the Liberal Democrats (and the Greens) do well, more often in Scotland.

If things really work out for the SNP and they achieve Independence at some point, what then for the SNP? Will Scotland settle into a politics based on Lab V SNP? This could be a little like FG v FF in Eire! I'm not at all sure if I want to see that emerge!!!

Nevertheless, I am struck that the SNP are very very professional nowadays in their integrated campaigning! They seem to have lots of bright young staffers too! They used to be rubbish at the ground war and targeting seats but this too may be changing!

The SNP have their dander up and no doubt workers are coming outta the woodwork! They have the big mo and that is coming through in the polls!

After four years of government in Scotland the fear factor of the SNP has gone and they seem broadly competent, and they have Alex!  Labour on the other hand are dull and predictable and oh so utterly uninspiring! Nor do the Labour Party have anyone to kick, like Tories, either!

This all adds up to help explain why Labour are going to do badly after doing so well in Scotland a year ago and doing well UK-wide just now! (though scratch the surface and there are still questions the electorate north and south of the border ask of Labour!)

The SNP charge also seems to be coming at the expense of Tory and Lib Dem voters who appear to be voting tactically for Salmond or tactically against Labour winning, says Jeff Breslin at Better Nation.

I saw some recent polling suggesting where SNP second preferences would go.  It seemed to split 50% left (Lab and SSP) 30% centre or centre left (LibDem and Green) and 10% right (Tory) with 10% unclassified.


According to Scottish Vote Compass, comparing the policies and philosophies of the parties, the Liberal Democrats and SNP and, on some issues, the Greens are all quite close.


So what have we?  We live in more politically volatile times where the electorate is more fluid and less tribal than in years gone by.  We see this in the tactical way the Scottish electorate votes at different elections. 

The SNP have money, some clever political operatives and they have Alex Salmond!


From my point of view, as a Liberal Democrat, the Coalition and the public sector cuts that have to be delivered, will harm us at this election.  In addition, association with the Conservatives remains toxic.  Whether we start to re-connect and people remember why they like us, or whether this a hurting that will last a generation, only time will tell.

In a four or five party system sometimes a party is drowned out at an election however it campaigns.  This is where the LibDems are finding themselves at the moment.

SNP doing well at this election.  However, I wouldn't want to see them do too well! 

I think if they sweep to power on the sentiment as it stands this Easter weekend, they would get their referendum this time.  I think only a third of the Scottish electorate, at most, have an interest in Independence - and not all the SNP's voters!!  But if there is a wave of warm feelings to the SNP this could yet become a close run thing. I don't personally believe Independence would be a good thing or the right thing for Scotland and the UK.  I, as a LibDem, take the view that a good dose of devolved and decentralised power within the UK is the naural settlement for the UK and for Scotland - and it is the one I want.


I am also cautious about how realistic the SNP's positions are.  They want council tax freezes and free prescriptions etc etc.  Cuts are on the way to what the SNP have to spend and I don't think their programme is entirely viable.

We don't want all the votes to go to the SNP, away from Labour.  At this election, I think it is important that the LibDems maintain a viable group at Holyrood!

Despite being crowded out I still think they have put together a good programme and a good campaign.

• A costed programme based on re-generation and jobs creation aimed at creating 100,000 jobs, 
• Supported by regional development banks to provide investment where the commercial banks can't.
• Abolishing the Council Tax for pensioners on less than £10,000.
• Introducing a pupil premium to ensure that kids from poorer backgrounds don't lose out at school 
• Keeping the free higher education, which the LibDems won in 1999 in Scotland!! 
• Investment in science and plans for getting superfast broadband out there to all of Scotland - to make Scotland the most connected country in Europe 
• Opposing any political power grab to the centre, especially a single Scottish police force.

This programme has been well received by analysts and independent commentators looking at the underlying costings and figures.


So we need plenty of LibDems in the parliament.  We don't want Lab v SNP to be like Fine Gael v Fine Fail in Ireland, where politics has not properly grown up post civil war and the parties do not compete enough on the politics of ideas.

Dare I say it, there is a place in Scotland for something on the right, but I do wish the Scots Tories did not sometimes look like Cameron and Farquhar down the rugby club!


The good thing about the SNP I read when I saw the Sun are supporting the SNP, and the Record Labour.  The Sun were arguing that the SNP's aspirational tax-cutting and upbeat electioneering is more in tune with their readers' outlook than the Record's more stolid reporting. Sun readers are younger, and more upwardly mobile, as are SNP voters.
 
Amen to a younger, more aspirational, more upbeat Scotland this Easter! Let this election catch the spirit! A good thumping of smug, dull old Labour will help!
 
I just hope the SNP don't win too big and that the LibDems stay strong!  We need them in a modern Scotland that is running to a better future!  

On being a punch bag - part 1

I have watched with interest, stoicism and some dismay the spectacle of the LibDems journey over the last ten months or so.  I've also watched the Cleggster go from hero to zero if the polls are to be believed.  A good friend asked me what I made of it all over coffee in Costa Coffee the other day.

I answered, "I'll tell you in a couple of years!"  This seems to me the sensible answer.  Going into government off the back of the credit crunch and going into government with arch rivals and arch villains the Conservatives was never going to be easy.  A process based on deficit reduction and gradual delivery of policies and vision - especially as a recovery (I hope) emerges is always going to take time.  We need to be bold and hang on and not just press the panic button  at the first wobble.

I am struck by the solidity of the party - I attend meetings and talk to plenty of them and people are still in surprisingly good spirits.  Hardly anyone has left.  I believe a few people who joined around last year's GE are not renewing but that is pretty much it.

I also said, "what did we expect to see?"  The Governor of the Bank of England said before the GE last year that whoever got in could expect to be out of power for the next generation because of the dirty work they would have to do.  We knew it was likely to be bloody!!!

We also knew if you go into coalition as a centre party your left wing will desert if you go blue, and your right wing will desert if you go red! Problem is the Lib Dems are a slightly left of centre party.  A believer in freedom and free enterprise but also I am a believer in public services - free at the point of delivery - a believer in community and of helping equalise the odds for people.  I am a believer in equality of opportunity.  A sort of enlightened capitalism we like to see.  For decades we have set our stall out as the non Tory alternative to socialism.  The point is non Tory!!

Yes, yes! This also means non socialist. No big state, centralist, blunt inefficient solutions for us.  Freedom from tyranny does not mean being replaced by workers controlling the means of production - ie self appointed new oligarchs!

But we are part of a progressive family that believes in helping folk, social justice and tends to believe in Keynsian economics. (Keynes is after all one of the great Liberal icons and part of our DNA and credo).

Being a LibDem  also I believe means being practical and open minded and not slavishly following any dogma.  Horses for courses! If a more supply side is needed as the solution or part of the solution then so be it!

We also have a Gladstonian tradition after all - Retrenchment, Peace and Reform.  And you still see the influence of that in our philosophy today.  Peace - our policies on Iraq and Trident - which many many people see the sense in!! Reform - our belief in decentralisation and reform of the house of Lords and civil liberties - bit policy wonky but history is usually on our side - especially in crusty conservative old Britain which likes to stick with what it knows at times.  Retrenchment - well here is the fault line.  This is the origin of us not liking clunky authoritarian inefficient statist solutions - but it is about public sector cuts.  the orange bookers are Gladstonian.  Most of the party is not really.  Though we can be persuaded of the need to retrench from time to time.  This is my position.

I am also conscious that after two - or was it three - elections of going with a penny on income tax to pay for education - we had to adapt to changing economic circumstances.

I thought Cable and Laws had a good, well thought out economic view at the last election.  Taking the tax burden off less well off folks, making work pay and being serious about addressing the deficit.

The structural deficit! My understanding on that one was it was massive, massive!!!  We spend far more than we can afford.  the bank bail outs have slaughtered us in the same way as reconstruction after a war of national survival.  I f not addressed, the bond markets will turn on us and destroy our economy.  To do nothing is not an option!!!

And the added complication is that these are changing times! Globalisation, the rise of mega economies like China, Brazil, India.  The rise of the East, the decline of the West (relatively).

The Western economies are adapting and we may face a period of low growth and something of a jobless recovery.

I am not sure if the simple Keynsian idea of spend, spend, spend works on its own this time! It is not post war reconstruction.  The world markets are not there for us, turbo charging growth as we spend!

So, I think avoiding deficit reduction is not an option and Labour would be doing it too! The only real arguments are around depth of cuts and over what time-frame!   

So, in terms of where we were in 2010 I think we had no option and I think the coalition agreement was sound.

Labour had had a colossal defeat and Brown was unpopular - and I think, great thinker and idealist that he is, somewhat dysfunctional as a leader.  Going with Labour was not possible.

Cleggster good ratings at a couple of debates but lacking roots meant it disappeared like snow off a dyke in a few days!

That was how I saw things.

So what if anything has gone wrong?

I'll leave that to the next post!

The Tories in Scotland are different

I originally posted this as a comment on The Green Benches blog.  It is a good blog.  You will find a link on my blogroll to the right hand side.

I think the Tories in Scotland are less concerned about being anti-EU and anti immigration than down south.

Many of the young Turks are interested in Euro scepticism and love characters like Dan Hanan but it just doesn't matter to them as much. UKIP barely register a ripple north of the border after all.

They aren't and cannot be Little Englanders.

Their belief in Britishness is strong. As the generations pass and the Second World War goes into the past so this dissipates somewhat but it is central to who they are.

One thing which stands out - I believe is class - I perceive the Tories in Scotland as being very much the party of many of the professional classes in Edinburgh and Glasgow, of people who were educated privately there, of well to do folks of rural Borders and Perthshire. As such they are a group who many Scots struggle to relate to and have become a small party marginalised to some extent.

The theme of localism that has been suggested that runs like a schism in Scottish politics - localism v statism. They love their communities. Wedded to Britishness they may well be but they are proud Scots too.

This sense of community and localism means they are less idealistic about small government and low taxes than their English counterparts. this also helps explain why they seem to have a narrower social mix than the Tories down south.

I sense many of the Tories in Scotland are socially quite conservative. The family, community, lack of political correctness and a residual element of the deferential society and belief in institutions is there. You highlight the connection with the forces,

Of course the 80s and Thatcher saw them seriously marginalised in Scotland becoming toxic under FPTP ensuring a tactical allegiance against them everywhere.

They seem to be uneasy bedfellows with the SNP and I think they are more right wing than you say Eoin. They are also unionists and not separatists and not all even convinced about devolution.

Nonetheless the SNP seem unlikely to deliver separatism producing a loose left of centre non socialist alternative to labour. The Tories are uneasy about their lefty-ness but they can unite against the Labour establishment.

In fact with the SNP having a loose belief in 'fairness' they occupy some of the space the LibDems occupy - especially down south - though they have good pockets of support in central Scotland too. It seems almost like a Con/LibDem coalition united against conservative, tribal,established Labour - who are rather - well - dull!

So an uneasy relationship but perhaps the SNP offer the Tories a cloak under which to do things, a chance - the only chance - to beat Labour and help in the long march back from the margins and being perceived as non Scottish.

Gavin