Showing posts with label Greens. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Greens. Show all posts
Saturday, 5 May 2012
Sunday, 18 September 2011
Which Star Trek villain is your political party?
I was indulging on some Twitter observations as to which Star Trek monsters represented which political party
Klingons - Tories
The original pantomime baddies
Ferrengi - the Labour Party
Villains to start with, turned comical
Tribbles - LibDems
Because they are soft and fluffy. (Personally I voted for Harry Mudd to represent my party)
The Borg - the SNP
Non Nationalist thinking is not allowed - no one expects the Scottish Inquisition - mwah-ha-ha
The Greens - that plant thing that shoots a puff of spores at you and takes over.
You see - seem benign but control freaks at heart! Actually some Greens think Patrick Harvie is Picard - honestly!
Ah well - we know the political task ahead. Can this disparate band of ne'er do wells stop us all being assimilated by the Borg? You have been warned!
With thanks to @SophiaPangloss @jruddy99 @setindarkness and @RLemkin
Klingons - Tories
The original pantomime baddies
Ferrengi - the Labour Party
Villains to start with, turned comical
Tribbles - LibDems
Because they are soft and fluffy. (Personally I voted for Harry Mudd to represent my party)
The Borg - the SNP
Non Nationalist thinking is not allowed - no one expects the Scottish Inquisition - mwah-ha-ha
The Greens - that plant thing that shoots a puff of spores at you and takes over.
You see - seem benign but control freaks at heart! Actually some Greens think Patrick Harvie is Picard - honestly!
Ah well - we know the political task ahead. Can this disparate band of ne'er do wells stop us all being assimilated by the Borg? You have been warned!
With thanks to @SophiaPangloss @jruddy99 @setindarkness and @RLemkin
Friday, 19 August 2011
LibDems get a kicking
The LibDems took a kicking in a council by-election in Edinburgh yesterday. LibDems taking a kicking in Scotland? No change there then! But this election was interesting for a number of reasons.
- First it was an STV election so we see how the second preferences redistributed.
- Second the ward was basically a 5 way dead heat last time!
- Third the LibDems are in power with the SNP in the city
- Fourth the ward is right in the heart of the controversial Edinburgh Trams project and there was an anti trams independent.
Background
The by-election in Central ward was caused by an SNP councillor resigning as he is going abroad to work.
There was a strong Conservative candidate who fought the election for Holyrood in May. There was a feisty and high profile Independent fighting on the red hot issue of the Trams. Going on second hand reports from the hustings there was a weak SNP candidate who should have been favourite. Again, from second hand reports the Green, LibDem and Labour candidates all had their strengths and weaknesses and showed promise – the LibDem and Greens were first time candidates I believe.
- The LibDems, Conservatives and Labour have all supported the Trams.
- The Independent is anti-tram.
- The SNP have positioned themselves as anti-tram though, as part of the administration, have voted for it but they distance themselves from decisions and the running of the transport brief.
The basic numbers are these:
Last time
SNP 20%, Con 20%, LD 20%, Lab 18%, Green 17%
This time - First preferences
Con 837 (24%) SNP 797 (23%) Lab 682 (20%) Green 494 (14%) Independent 394 (9%) LD 251 (7%)
Second stage
LibDem votes then redistributed largely to the Tory and to the Green
LD Redistribution
67 to the Tory, 28 to SNP, 34 to Labour, 82 to the Green
Giving
Con 904, SNP 825, Lab 716, Green 576, Ind 402
Third stage
The Independent votes then redistributed to the Tory but with healthy numbers to the SNP and Green too.
Ind redistribution
139 to the Tory, 68 to SNP, 29 to Labour, 59 to Green
Giving
Con 1043, SNP 893, Lab 745, Green 635
Fourth stage
More Greens transferred to Labour than SNP
Green redistribution
67 to Tory, 188 to SNP, 223 to Labour
Giving
Con 1110, SNP 1081, Lab 968
Fifth stage
More Labour votes transfer to SNP but a surprisingly high amount go to the Tory.
Labour redistribution
154 to Tory, 287 to SNP
SNP 1368, Con 1264
SNP Hold
Assessment
A strong showing by the Tories, but with a good, known candidate. Alright for the SNP and Labour advancing on 2007, but Labour should be disappointed they cannot do better. The SNP nearly lost what should have been an easy win, but a stronger candidate would probably do better. A poor result for the Greens and a disastrous one for the LibDems where they are being crushed between the rocks of the Coalition, the Trams and an unpopular council. And will there be any anti-tram independents across the city next May?
(Numbers sourced from @BritainVotes live feed)
Wednesday, 6 July 2011
Edinburgh Trams - finish what you started!
We are told that the Edinburgh trams will reduce congestion, we are told they will reduce pollution, we are told they will enhance the image of a city that competes globally in the same league as the likes of Barcelona, Munich and Prague.
Certainly Edinburgh is becoming more congested. According to international figures it is one of the most congested cities in Europe now. Edinburgh has an outstanding bus service but it is at maximum capacity. With congestion comes pollution. At its worst some of the pollution levels can match those of Beijing in some of the city canyons created by tenements.
The trams will alleviate these problems.
But this tram project has been beset with problems. It was due to complete this year but is now projected to complete in 2015. It was due to cost £545m, now cost estimates are for £770m and that is running one line to the city centre from the airport - no line to the modern Royal Infirmary and teaching hospital and no line to the fashionable Leith waterfront (home to Britannia, some Michelin Star restaurants and a gaggle of civil servants).
So the project is truncated, over budget and behind time!
With a smaller scale project I am hearing some of the original assumptions and benefits being challenged.
As I said, the whole thing was meant to cover a considerably larger area. Originally the trams went hand in hand with a congestion charging scheme to reduce traffic. And, originally the trams went alongside an ambitious housing and re-development plan for Leith (the port area) and along the waterfront. Two of the tram lines are not going ahead, the congestion charging got voted out in a local referendum and the recession put paid to the Leith redevelopment - for now.
But new figures have been given and apparently the reduced trams project still brings about appreciable advantages in congestion and pollution reduction.
Maybe some of these figures should be questioned - will this just benefit tourists - is everyone being entirely truthful or realistic with their projected numbers? Time will tell.
I also believe it is just a start. Once the core infrastructure is up and running it is much easier and cheaper to extend it. I think in time the trams will go to Leith and maybe even the Edinburgh Royal Infirmary on the edge of the city.
Congestion is not going away. Modern transport modes will not stand still. This is a project for the future and one we will build on.
Even if the numbers don't stack up well at this stage, as opponents of the scheme argue, I think they will over time. But I am prepared to change my mind on this if it can be outlined that none of the revised numbers stack up at all.
I'm also told that, paradoxically the traffic re-routing necessitated by trams will create pollution black spots in some new places. However, I think the net affect will be an overall reduction in pollution for the city.
There have been a few other examples of big engineering projects which should help us put this project in some sort of perspective. The Dublin tram project was hated during the building disruption and ended up costing three times the original estimates. It is now a big success and being extended!! The Manchester trams are being extended too.
Wembley Stadium was beset with delays and increasing costs and also in Edinburgh, the Scottish Parliament building cost 10 times the original proposal and is now an iconic building.
The Edinburgh trams project is actually a relative minor offender in terms of rising costs. True the project is over budget by around £200m, with just a third of the work completed. But most of the hard bits have been done: new bridges, the tram depot, the groundwork - moving gas, water and electricity pipes along the route much of which involved renewing pipework that would have needed renewal anyway.
So, what has gone wrong and who is to blame?
Despite putting the costs over run in perspective there is no doubt that this is much worse given we have a recession at this time. I also think after the parliament building debacle there was a determination to put a stop to major engineering contracts being so open ended in terms of costs.
This project has had a massive time over-run and at times in terms of project management has seemed something of a shambles.
Huge disruption has been caused on Princes Street and down Leith Walk meaning traders have suffered. Those living close to the route are driven to despair. Particular vitriol seems to come from the good citizens of around Leith Walk as it has been dug up, is still dug up and the tram will never go there. 'Which genius thought that one up?' they cry!
Well it probably will someday - just not yet!
This project has a messy structure and governance. There is the Council, a firm called TIE (Transport Initiatives Edinburgh) to project manage the construction and the main contractors - Bilfinger Berger.
Hit by delays and overspend there has been a series of disputes. Work stopped and external mediators had to come in to solve a series of contract disputes between the city and the contractors.
Political pass the parcel
The politics of all this has become quite grisly. It resembles a game of pass the parcel in reverse as the parties try not to be associated with a once glorious project as we near election time.
I actually think this is a complicated saga and to pin the blame on one party is ridiculously simplistic and probably wholly inaccurate.
Make no mistake, this is a long standing project with original all party support in Edinburgh.
The LibDems and SNP can be criticised because they form the current administration and most of the problems have come to a head while they have been in office. In particular they signed a contract in 2008 with the contractor which did not prove water tight on the costs. But they were told that 95% of the costs were fixed.
I for one would like to know if the council lawyers and council officials and TIE people should have done better with the contract that was put in place in 2008.
The SNP point out, rightly, that they were the only ones against the project. However, they are part of the current ruling group and they signed off the contracts in 2008 and since then have made the project impossible from within making them more responsible for difficulties than the LibDems, reckons the Green Party's James Mackenzie who does media for their MSPs.
The SNP in Edinburgh are interesting, they do spend a lot of time trying to look both ways and pass the buck on this issue even though they have voted for it.
They did oppose it originally. They seemed to do this for political advantage in 2007 rather than as a profound policy position. At Holyrood they opposed it but that was because they saw spending on roads as more important and didn't want big capital projects in Edinburgh and Glasgow, they wanted it spent up north where their support came from at that time.
I'm not sure what the SNP in Edinburgh thought before 2007 as they were barely a factor in those days. I don't remember them taking a strong line against the original Tram ideas..
Labour have been particularly political in a pathetic and disingenuous way. They say there was no trouble before 2007 and the problems all come from the 2008 contract with the developer. Apart from the fact that this is over simplistic to the point of inaccuracy I have one problem with this. The problems with the project management stem from the governance arrangements and the responsibility for the Edinburgh trams governance arrangements lies entirely with Labour! Though I think that too is over simplistic as there was all party support but I do think the project management problems are at the root of the problems - the 2008 contract is symptomatic of that.
I don't want to get bogged down in this but each political party shares in the responsibility for the shambolic management, and there are questions to ask of TIE, lawyers and council officials.
So back to where I started from.
Its a bit of a mess. We can't be sure of all the new figures and assessments and the politicians are trying to pass the buck in a pathetic manner. But my instinct is they are better finishing what they started; and like Dublin, Nottingham, Manchester, Seville and countless other European cities, I hope we will be glad we did this one day and will want to extend the Edinburgh tram project.
Monday, 2 May 2011
Holyrood - what's going to happen?
Well we're into the home strait in the 2011 Holyrood election and what an interesting election it has turned out to be so far!
Labour has utterly failed to inspire and there seems quite a strong part of the electorate that sees them as kinda irrelevant!
This is Scotland and they haven’t a coalition to kick – take that away and they are not hated, just not very popular outside of their own support! After such a strong showing in Scotland at the General Election what a difference a year makes! (in fact, what a difference 6 weeks makes!)
The SNP has been very successful at building a coalition of people looking for an aspirational modern Scotland.
The Greens – probably due to the unpopularity of the LibDems - looked poised to do quite well. What is untested is how much people truly support them, but clearly the pro environment consensus in politics grows year by year.
The coalition has been toxic for the LibDems and they have been crowded out of this election somewhat. At this point I think incumbency will save a couple of seats and targetted efforts will bring a percent or so better than the final weekend's polls This would represent the difference between a drubbing or just a difficult stage they're going through.
The Tories, after a good start and some good ratings for their leader, have been crowded out a bit as well and may end up doing a little worse than they might have hoped!
In short, I think this election is going to give us a large Labour group and a large anti Labour group in the guise of the SNP. This could be a very bad thing. If Holyrood just becomes an SNP Labour fight many of us will be marginalised by Holyrood! Also this will smack of FF v FG in Ireland. Two very similar parties offering plenty of bluster but short on ideas.
The Greens will gain some seats while the LibDems and Tories will be reduced to smaller groups or hang on as a small rump.
The paradox is that, in different ways, none of the parties should kid themselves.
Labour, despite national polls aren't actually well liked.
The SNP have limited support for Independence – the support is for a modern aspirational alternative to Labour – and Alex - rather than for the SNP per se.
The Greens are benefiting from LibDem fall out and general sympathy to environmental issues. But some of them seem to think they will now replace the LibDems. However, many of their supporters are unlikely to support their policies in any detail - quite the reverse and they have no base or philosophy for local government.
The Tories have not yet moved forward, they remain essentially as unpopular in Scotland as ever - or at least since 1987!!
The LibDems are very unpopular post coalition. Whether this is a generational change or they can in due course remind a bloc of voters that they prefer them to other temporary choices remains to be seen! The task for the LibDems is, I think, to rebuild as a modern aspirational party.
I thought in this election they have had some extremely good ideas eg
- regional development banks
- the commitment to green jobs, and renewables and energy
- plans to abolish the Council Tax for the poorest pensioners,
I think when people get off their soap-boxes and they actually look at what the LibDems are doing in government it is rather impressive:
Look at the key policies of the General Election manifesto!
- fairer taxes - the tax threshhold raised massively to benefit lower paid workers and make work pay,
- a fair start for every child - a range of measures to support schooling including a delivery of the Pupil Premium to support the schooling of children from a poorer background.
- investment to create jobs in the renewables sector including the formation of a Green Bank, probably in Scotland!
In fact the LibDems have got over 60% of their policies implemented through the Coalition!
There is an argument that the LibDems in coalition in the UK achieve far more than the SNP in Scotland. Salmond and the SNP were after all largely irrelevant when faced with the global banking crisis!
And on tuition fees?
Well Labour brought in tuition fees in England despite promising not to and would have done so in Scotland if they hadn't been stopped by the Liberal Democrats.
The SNP promised to eradicate student debt in 2007 but have got nowhere.
The LibDems managed to take many thousands out of paying fees in England - better than it was before.
In Scotland they have gained praise from student groups. "To win £15m college bursaries, and £8m for college places, in a budget which is being cut is a fantastic result. We hope this will now end the yearly ritual of college bursaries running out and end the threat of cuts to 40,000 of our poorest students.” said Liam Burns NUS President
So, the truth about the LibDems in Government is rather better than many people perceive. But no-one has been listening this time.
As I say, the task is to remind people why they liked them and - in Scotland to rebuild as a modern and aspirational party.
There may yet be some movement in this Holyrood election, like there was in the last days of the General Election. I expect post Royal Wedding some of the SNP support may go back from whence it came. The question is how much will go back.
We're in for an interesting night on Thursday!
Labour has utterly failed to inspire and there seems quite a strong part of the electorate that sees them as kinda irrelevant!
This is Scotland and they haven’t a coalition to kick – take that away and they are not hated, just not very popular outside of their own support! After such a strong showing in Scotland at the General Election what a difference a year makes! (in fact, what a difference 6 weeks makes!)
The SNP has been very successful at building a coalition of people looking for an aspirational modern Scotland.
The Greens – probably due to the unpopularity of the LibDems - looked poised to do quite well. What is untested is how much people truly support them, but clearly the pro environment consensus in politics grows year by year.
The coalition has been toxic for the LibDems and they have been crowded out of this election somewhat. At this point I think incumbency will save a couple of seats and targetted efforts will bring a percent or so better than the final weekend's polls This would represent the difference between a drubbing or just a difficult stage they're going through.
The Tories, after a good start and some good ratings for their leader, have been crowded out a bit as well and may end up doing a little worse than they might have hoped!
In short, I think this election is going to give us a large Labour group and a large anti Labour group in the guise of the SNP. This could be a very bad thing. If Holyrood just becomes an SNP Labour fight many of us will be marginalised by Holyrood! Also this will smack of FF v FG in Ireland. Two very similar parties offering plenty of bluster but short on ideas.
The Greens will gain some seats while the LibDems and Tories will be reduced to smaller groups or hang on as a small rump.
The paradox is that, in different ways, none of the parties should kid themselves.
Labour, despite national polls aren't actually well liked.
The SNP have limited support for Independence – the support is for a modern aspirational alternative to Labour – and Alex - rather than for the SNP per se.
The Greens are benefiting from LibDem fall out and general sympathy to environmental issues. But some of them seem to think they will now replace the LibDems. However, many of their supporters are unlikely to support their policies in any detail - quite the reverse and they have no base or philosophy for local government.
The Tories have not yet moved forward, they remain essentially as unpopular in Scotland as ever - or at least since 1987!!
The LibDems are very unpopular post coalition. Whether this is a generational change or they can in due course remind a bloc of voters that they prefer them to other temporary choices remains to be seen! The task for the LibDems is, I think, to rebuild as a modern aspirational party.
I thought in this election they have had some extremely good ideas eg
- regional development banks
- the commitment to green jobs, and renewables and energy
- plans to abolish the Council Tax for the poorest pensioners,
I think when people get off their soap-boxes and they actually look at what the LibDems are doing in government it is rather impressive:
Look at the key policies of the General Election manifesto!
- fairer taxes - the tax threshhold raised massively to benefit lower paid workers and make work pay,
- a fair start for every child - a range of measures to support schooling including a delivery of the Pupil Premium to support the schooling of children from a poorer background.
- investment to create jobs in the renewables sector including the formation of a Green Bank, probably in Scotland!
In fact the LibDems have got over 60% of their policies implemented through the Coalition!
There is an argument that the LibDems in coalition in the UK achieve far more than the SNP in Scotland. Salmond and the SNP were after all largely irrelevant when faced with the global banking crisis!
And on tuition fees?
Well Labour brought in tuition fees in England despite promising not to and would have done so in Scotland if they hadn't been stopped by the Liberal Democrats.
The SNP promised to eradicate student debt in 2007 but have got nowhere.
The LibDems managed to take many thousands out of paying fees in England - better than it was before.
In Scotland they have gained praise from student groups. "To win £15m college bursaries, and £8m for college places, in a budget which is being cut is a fantastic result. We hope this will now end the yearly ritual of college bursaries running out and end the threat of cuts to 40,000 of our poorest students.” said Liam Burns NUS President
So, the truth about the LibDems in Government is rather better than many people perceive. But no-one has been listening this time.
As I say, the task is to remind people why they liked them and - in Scotland to rebuild as a modern and aspirational party.
There may yet be some movement in this Holyrood election, like there was in the last days of the General Election. I expect post Royal Wedding some of the SNP support may go back from whence it came. The question is how much will go back.
We're in for an interesting night on Thursday!
Sunday, 24 April 2011
Who are the SNP?
So the SNP seem to have the big mo in the Scottish election. I'll confess right now that the SNP have always puzzled me. Oh, I understand that if you are a believer in an Independent Scotland then the Scot Nats are for you, but what is the point of them beyond that, and who is supporting them and why?
This is my personal view of at least part of the answer to that question.
Something seems to be afoot! I can smell it in the air Charlie! I'm based in Edinburgh Pentlands - for long a bit of a Con-Lab marginal. Could it be that the SNP overtake them both on the inside lane? I have had 4 SNP leaflets delivered by hand (ie not freepost leaflets) - that has never happened before! That is more than from either Labour or Tory! True Pentlands is interesting - the SNP were third but got a healthy enough vote. In the 80s Keith Smith made it a 3 way marginal for the SDP Alliance. This means to me, that if they can get organised there is scope for a third party - whether SNP or LibDem to do well in my seat and even take it!
But the SNP doing well in Edinburgh! Never really seen that before - although, on the back of the last Holyrood election, they showed signs of flickering into life. Edinburgh has seen a really strong Liberal Democrat vote before! At times it has seemed to me, in some rural and suburban parts, the Liberal Democrat vote and SNP vote seems interchangeable to some extent! Certainly with our four party system - five if you count the Greens - Scottish voters are highly tactical. Scots voters link up to keep Conservatives out! Scottish voters get behind whoever they think will do best for Scotland at different elections.
Hence the SNP do well at Holyrood elections and poorly at Westminster elections - kinda the other way around for the LibDems.
Certainly, as a LibDem, I feel the SNP at this election sound like a tartan SDP at times. The emphasis on the environment, a positive outlook on Europe, a pragmatic centre left agenda - free from Labour dogma and grand-standing. Apart from the discreet Independence bit, it could so easily be a Liberal Democrat agenda.
However, slightly different people seem to support the SNP and they seem able to have a more broad appeal across Scotland than the Liberal Democrats. They do well in traditional Labour areas and the west of Scotland - AND in rural and suburban areas too.
Someone once said to me the old tribal certainties are breaking down as the generations move on. Fewer and fewer people are Labour or Conservative as a birth-right. As we all become just a little middle class, so the SNP and the Liberal Democrats (and the Greens) do well, more often in Scotland.
If things really work out for the SNP and they achieve Independence at some point, what then for the SNP? Will Scotland settle into a politics based on Lab V SNP? This could be a little like FG v FF in Eire! I'm not at all sure if I want to see that emerge!!!
Nevertheless, I am struck that the SNP are very very professional nowadays in their integrated campaigning! They seem to have lots of bright young staffers too! They used to be rubbish at the ground war and targeting seats but this too may be changing!
The SNP have their dander up and no doubt workers are coming outta the woodwork! They have the big mo and that is coming through in the polls!
After four years of government in Scotland the fear factor of the SNP has gone and they seem broadly competent, and they have Alex! Labour on the other hand are dull and predictable and oh so utterly uninspiring! Nor do the Labour Party have anyone to kick, like Tories, either!
This all adds up to help explain why Labour are going to do badly after doing so well in Scotland a year ago and doing well UK-wide just now! (though scratch the surface and there are still questions the electorate north and south of the border ask of Labour!)
The SNP charge also seems to be coming at the expense of Tory and Lib Dem voters who appear to be voting tactically for Salmond or tactically against Labour winning, says Jeff Breslin at Better Nation.
I saw some recent polling suggesting where SNP second preferences would go. It seemed to split 50% left (Lab and SSP) 30% centre or centre left (LibDem and Green) and 10% right (Tory) with 10% unclassified.
According to Scottish Vote Compass, comparing the policies and philosophies of the parties, the Liberal Democrats and SNP and, on some issues, the Greens are all quite close.
So what have we? We live in more politically volatile times where the electorate is more fluid and less tribal than in years gone by. We see this in the tactical way the Scottish electorate votes at different elections.
The SNP have money, some clever political operatives and they have Alex Salmond!
From my point of view, as a Liberal Democrat, the Coalition and the public sector cuts that have to be delivered, will harm us at this election. In addition, association with the Conservatives remains toxic. Whether we start to re-connect and people remember why they like us, or whether this a hurting that will last a generation, only time will tell.
In a four or five party system sometimes a party is drowned out at an election however it campaigns. This is where the LibDems are finding themselves at the moment.
SNP doing well at this election. However, I wouldn't want to see them do too well!
I think if they sweep to power on the sentiment as it stands this Easter weekend, they would get their referendum this time. I think only a third of the Scottish electorate, at most, have an interest in Independence - and not all the SNP's voters!! But if there is a wave of warm feelings to the SNP this could yet become a close run thing. I don't personally believe Independence would be a good thing or the right thing for Scotland and the UK. I, as a LibDem, take the view that a good dose of devolved and decentralised power within the UK is the naural settlement for the UK and for Scotland - and it is the one I want.
I am also cautious about how realistic the SNP's positions are. They want council tax freezes and free prescriptions etc etc. Cuts are on the way to what the SNP have to spend and I don't think their programme is entirely viable.
We don't want all the votes to go to the SNP, away from Labour. At this election, I think it is important that the LibDems maintain a viable group at Holyrood!
Despite being crowded out I still think they have put together a good programme and a good campaign.
So we need plenty of LibDems in the parliament. We don't want Lab v SNP to be like Fine Gael v Fine Fail in Ireland, where politics has not properly grown up post civil war and the parties do not compete enough on the politics of ideas.
Dare I say it, there is a place in Scotland for something on the right, but I do wish the Scots Tories did not sometimes look like Cameron and Farquhar down the rugby club!
The good thing about the SNP I read when I saw the Sun are supporting the SNP, and the Record Labour. The Sun were arguing that the SNP's aspirational tax-cutting and upbeat electioneering is more in tune with their readers' outlook than the Record's more stolid reporting. Sun readers are younger, and more upwardly mobile, as are SNP voters.
Amen to a younger, more aspirational, more upbeat Scotland this Easter! Let this election catch the spirit! A good thumping of smug, dull old Labour will help!
I just hope the SNP don't win too big and that the LibDems stay strong! We need them in a modern Scotland that is running to a better future!
This is my personal view of at least part of the answer to that question.
Something seems to be afoot! I can smell it in the air Charlie! I'm based in Edinburgh Pentlands - for long a bit of a Con-Lab marginal. Could it be that the SNP overtake them both on the inside lane? I have had 4 SNP leaflets delivered by hand (ie not freepost leaflets) - that has never happened before! That is more than from either Labour or Tory! True Pentlands is interesting - the SNP were third but got a healthy enough vote. In the 80s Keith Smith made it a 3 way marginal for the SDP Alliance. This means to me, that if they can get organised there is scope for a third party - whether SNP or LibDem to do well in my seat and even take it!
But the SNP doing well in Edinburgh! Never really seen that before - although, on the back of the last Holyrood election, they showed signs of flickering into life. Edinburgh has seen a really strong Liberal Democrat vote before! At times it has seemed to me, in some rural and suburban parts, the Liberal Democrat vote and SNP vote seems interchangeable to some extent! Certainly with our four party system - five if you count the Greens - Scottish voters are highly tactical. Scots voters link up to keep Conservatives out! Scottish voters get behind whoever they think will do best for Scotland at different elections.
Hence the SNP do well at Holyrood elections and poorly at Westminster elections - kinda the other way around for the LibDems.
Certainly, as a LibDem, I feel the SNP at this election sound like a tartan SDP at times. The emphasis on the environment, a positive outlook on Europe, a pragmatic centre left agenda - free from Labour dogma and grand-standing. Apart from the discreet Independence bit, it could so easily be a Liberal Democrat agenda.
However, slightly different people seem to support the SNP and they seem able to have a more broad appeal across Scotland than the Liberal Democrats. They do well in traditional Labour areas and the west of Scotland - AND in rural and suburban areas too.
Someone once said to me the old tribal certainties are breaking down as the generations move on. Fewer and fewer people are Labour or Conservative as a birth-right. As we all become just a little middle class, so the SNP and the Liberal Democrats (and the Greens) do well, more often in Scotland.
If things really work out for the SNP and they achieve Independence at some point, what then for the SNP? Will Scotland settle into a politics based on Lab V SNP? This could be a little like FG v FF in Eire! I'm not at all sure if I want to see that emerge!!!
Nevertheless, I am struck that the SNP are very very professional nowadays in their integrated campaigning! They seem to have lots of bright young staffers too! They used to be rubbish at the ground war and targeting seats but this too may be changing!
The SNP have their dander up and no doubt workers are coming outta the woodwork! They have the big mo and that is coming through in the polls!
After four years of government in Scotland the fear factor of the SNP has gone and they seem broadly competent, and they have Alex! Labour on the other hand are dull and predictable and oh so utterly uninspiring! Nor do the Labour Party have anyone to kick, like Tories, either!
This all adds up to help explain why Labour are going to do badly after doing so well in Scotland a year ago and doing well UK-wide just now! (though scratch the surface and there are still questions the electorate north and south of the border ask of Labour!)
The SNP charge also seems to be coming at the expense of Tory and Lib Dem voters who appear to be voting tactically for Salmond or tactically against Labour winning, says Jeff Breslin at Better Nation.
I saw some recent polling suggesting where SNP second preferences would go. It seemed to split 50% left (Lab and SSP) 30% centre or centre left (LibDem and Green) and 10% right (Tory) with 10% unclassified.
According to Scottish Vote Compass, comparing the policies and philosophies of the parties, the Liberal Democrats and SNP and, on some issues, the Greens are all quite close.
So what have we? We live in more politically volatile times where the electorate is more fluid and less tribal than in years gone by. We see this in the tactical way the Scottish electorate votes at different elections.
The SNP have money, some clever political operatives and they have Alex Salmond!
From my point of view, as a Liberal Democrat, the Coalition and the public sector cuts that have to be delivered, will harm us at this election. In addition, association with the Conservatives remains toxic. Whether we start to re-connect and people remember why they like us, or whether this a hurting that will last a generation, only time will tell.
In a four or five party system sometimes a party is drowned out at an election however it campaigns. This is where the LibDems are finding themselves at the moment.
SNP doing well at this election. However, I wouldn't want to see them do too well!
I think if they sweep to power on the sentiment as it stands this Easter weekend, they would get their referendum this time. I think only a third of the Scottish electorate, at most, have an interest in Independence - and not all the SNP's voters!! But if there is a wave of warm feelings to the SNP this could yet become a close run thing. I don't personally believe Independence would be a good thing or the right thing for Scotland and the UK. I, as a LibDem, take the view that a good dose of devolved and decentralised power within the UK is the naural settlement for the UK and for Scotland - and it is the one I want.
I am also cautious about how realistic the SNP's positions are. They want council tax freezes and free prescriptions etc etc. Cuts are on the way to what the SNP have to spend and I don't think their programme is entirely viable.
We don't want all the votes to go to the SNP, away from Labour. At this election, I think it is important that the LibDems maintain a viable group at Holyrood!
Despite being crowded out I still think they have put together a good programme and a good campaign.
- A costed programme based on re-generation and jobs creation aimed at creating 100,000 jobs,
- Supported by regional development banks to provide investment where the commercial banks can't.
- Abolishing the Council Tax for pensioners on less than £10,000.
- Introducing a pupil premium to ensure that kids from poorer backgrounds don't lose out at school
- Keeping the free higher education, which the LibDems won in 1999 in Scotland!!
- Investment in science and plans for getting superfast broadband out there to all of Scotland - to make Scotland the most connected country in Europe
- Opposing any political power grab to the centre, especially a single Scottish police force.
So we need plenty of LibDems in the parliament. We don't want Lab v SNP to be like Fine Gael v Fine Fail in Ireland, where politics has not properly grown up post civil war and the parties do not compete enough on the politics of ideas.
Dare I say it, there is a place in Scotland for something on the right, but I do wish the Scots Tories did not sometimes look like Cameron and Farquhar down the rugby club!
The good thing about the SNP I read when I saw the Sun are supporting the SNP, and the Record Labour. The Sun were arguing that the SNP's aspirational tax-cutting and upbeat electioneering is more in tune with their readers' outlook than the Record's more stolid reporting. Sun readers are younger, and more upwardly mobile, as are SNP voters.
Amen to a younger, more aspirational, more upbeat Scotland this Easter! Let this election catch the spirit! A good thumping of smug, dull old Labour will help!
I just hope the SNP don't win too big and that the LibDems stay strong! We need them in a modern Scotland that is running to a better future!
Wednesday, 13 April 2011
On being a punch bag - part 2
In the first post of this title I reflected on the torrid time the LibDems have faced in the last few months. I noticed with dismay the kicking we have taken from some quarters and the way in which the LibDems have become at times toxic.
I argued that going into coalition with the Conservatives was courageous and probably right for the country and going with Labour was not really possible. And I argued the coalition agreement at that point was essentially sound!
1 THAT WAS 2010, WHAT DO I THINK OF WHAT HAS SUBSEQUENTLY HAPPENED?
Lets start at the deep end - It seems to me the no university tuition fees pledge plus photographs in leaflets was a mistake and will go down in the annals of UK politics as one of the great electoral mistakes and cautionary tales!
I think the public seem to understand that if you go into coalition you have to compromise but expect you to deliver something on your key policies.
By campaigning with a pledge and a photo LibDems made tuition fees a key point.
It was about the young, it was about a flagship policy and an essential part of our brand, aping what had been incredibly effective politically in Scotland. It was about progressive politics, our belief in education, social inclusion and mobility and also loved by middle class voters and mums and dads and grannies and grandpas too for that matter!
It seemed good politics humanising the rather dry business of key points and a costed programme - this was the vital emotional ingredient that told our story!
But, as Ed Milliband later said - it was naive to go with an out and out pledge!
What went wrong?
The LibDem leadership did scenario testing quite well in pre election preparation for potential coalitions. They considered the possibility that it the free tuition fees pledge may not be deliverable. From what I understand Clegg realised too late that it may not be deliverable and Danny Alexander felt there was
enough there of the policy they could deliver in spirit to go with. This means it was a mistake they ought not to have made.
Are they liars - no, of course not!
They achieved wider social inclusion and have improved the deal for more students from disadvantaged backgrounds than Labour or the Conservatives were proposing. And they got more resources put into early stage and pre-school education that wasn't there before.
There were too many dependencies to deal with to unravel tuition fees. The money wasn't there. The universities had been deprived of too much funding. The Brown commission came to recommend tuition fees. The Vice Chancellors want it. Labour and the Conservatives want it.
They tried, they made a difference for the good, they got rid of them in Scotland before - but they couldn't deliver on this this time. It is a slightly perverse irony that such a pile of excrement has fallen on the LibDem's head for fighting and failing - all because of the political mistake of making a policy a pledge and those photographs!
Clegg's mistake - which may indeed have been difficult to avoid as the difficulty in delivery became apparent at the 11th hour - means that being the FibDems is now part of the brand!
I fear in coalition you get associated with one thing. In Scotland this was Free tuition fees and then Free personal care for the elderly.
I fear that with this government the one big thing we are remembered for may be the tuition fees fail.
We need this one thing to be something else!
2 WHAT HAVE THE LIBDEMS DONE IN GOVERNMENT?
Well quite a lot it would seem!!
http://www.whatthehellhavethelibdemsdone.com/
Raising the Income Tax threshhold to reduce tax for the lower paid, take 880,000 of the poorest out of income tax altogether and to fundamentally shift our tax and benefits system to make work pay is a major achievement.
Introducing the Green Investment bank and mapping out our route to renewable energy and low carbon sources of energy is important and I hope will become a more substantial achievement as this parliament unfolds.
I rather like the achievements on prioritising Dementia research and expanding talking therapies for mental health illnesses.
But there needs to be more delivered.
We must be seen to make a difference with reining in poor NHS reforms - of acting as a check and a balance.
We must be seen to move to limit cuts if things go well and tax receipts improve and progress is made with reducing the deficit. We believe in public services and community after all. Cuts are a necessity for us to put us on an even keel - not an article of faith like with some Tories.
But what will our one big thing be?
"Read my lips, no new taxes" was the mantra quoted by George Bush Snr on the stump. I'm sure that was his intention but he couldn't deliver and this came back to crucify him 4 years later against Bill Clinton. I fear Free Tuition fees and the failure to deliver on that pledge may haunt the LibDems and Nick Clegg through this election cycle. I fear that may be our big thing we are remembered for!
We may yet make a difference!
Dr Eoin Clarke, historian, academic, and someone who is building quite a reputation as master of the data in his comments on Anthony Wells' UK Polling Report website reckons the LibDems will come back to poll ratings of 18%.
This would mean holding a lot of key seats but losing a few as well.
I feel we will eventually come back in this election cycle but damage will be done. Eoin is pretty objective as a psephological commentator and has an uncanny nack
No he doesn't have a crystal ball but he is Irish so may be in league with the faeries!
http://eoin-clarke.blogspot.com/2011/02/liberal-democrat-wipe-out-at-next.html
Where did we expect to be in the polls after deciding between red and blue and going into coalition with a tough agenda involving inevitable cuts. I thought in 2010 maybe 15% - not around 10-12% (and worse in Scotland and Northern England)
I hope we get over what we have done on tuition fees.
I hope we find 1 big thing that the LibDems are recognised for delivering in government.
Better still, I hope we find a classic list of 3 big things the LibDems are recognised as having delivered.
3 SCHADENFREUDE
I have been rather amused at the schadenfreude (love that word) or joy at the LibDem's misfortune permeating the blogosphere. You see it on Twitter and on the comments of blogs like UK Polling Report.
"The LibDems are liars and getting what they deserve". The natural order of progressive politics is being restored with Labour on 45% and rising with the LibDems facing oblivion. The reds can man the barricades to fight the evil old Etonians who care not for ordinary people preferring to persecute them while feathering their nests. A bit of a caricature perhaps but sometimes I wonder! It certainly seems to be a role some of the reds love to play!
Don't forget about 1/3rd of Labour's current doesn't particularly believe in Labour policy yet! Partly because they are split between those who would tackle the deficit and those who see no need to cut anything!! See my previous posting about the paradox of Labour and some of the polling on the Labour support.
The LibDems may yet get some of these people back
Spare a thought for the LibDems courage and what they are doing. See beyond tuition fees - which was a political mistake not dishonesty or having the wrong idea!
In Scotland the Scottish election platform from the LibDems is actually rather good!
The centrepiece of the plans is a £1.5 billion windfall, coming from making Scottish Water a public benefit corporation. It retains public ownership, by selling off the debt it owes the taxpayer so that it pays the public back for the money it's borrowed. This restructuring would give an immediate cash windfall of around £2.75 billion.
This would be invested for the long term - to create 100,000 jobs,
In addition:
There remains very much a market demand for third party - a centrist party.
From what I read about the SNP, if Independence were achieved and the SNP broke left, right and centre, about 30% would break centre to Green or LibDem.
Some of the current Labour support could go LibDem if we remind them of why they used to like us.
However, we must beware the formulation of a special interest groups rainbow coalition - or of so called blue Labour - don't let Labour be receptacle for that - if we do Ed Milliband will have outflanked us and built his own Blairite coalition.
As LibDems we need to remember core ideas and be clear what we have done through government. This includes what we have stopped being done. This includes putting the brakes on the likes of Bill Cash and the Euro Sceptics!
Take me to the ball game!
It is a new ball game. There has been no coalition since the war - and that was wartime national unity. It is a new game with new rules. We should perhaps not get into a slavish adherence to cabinet responsibility. We owe a duty to be clear about what LibDems are arguing for in government and against. Yes, in government we must support the decisions that are made but I believe it is ok to have the party running arguments - on say whether we should have such high VAT - it is an honest approach.
We should not worry about being a punchbag by Labour supporters or the Daily Mail, or by getting lost in the quagmire of tuition fees - what's done is done!
We must now focus on deliverables and by getting out there with what we are trying to do! Olly Grender, Paddy Ashdown's Director of Communications, has argued as much in the New Statesman recently!
It is also important that we don't look like poodles and that Clegg doesn't look like Cam's fag!!
Remember the LibDems like us. The Conservatives think we are ok. It is Labour who hate us and they never supported us before!
As for ex LibDems - there must be some inevitable loss but if we deliver in government we will remind some of these voters why they liked us in the first place - at the next election cycle if not this one!
I still can't see the Greens on a reading of their current platform being a mass party. The market demand for the centre is very much there as is the scope for doing well with a leader who catches the popular imagination!
We must toughen up, not listen to those who partisanly wish our demise and deliver stuff!
I argued that going into coalition with the Conservatives was courageous and probably right for the country and going with Labour was not really possible. And I argued the coalition agreement at that point was essentially sound!
1 THAT WAS 2010, WHAT DO I THINK OF WHAT HAS SUBSEQUENTLY HAPPENED?
Lets start at the deep end - It seems to me the no university tuition fees pledge plus photographs in leaflets was a mistake and will go down in the annals of UK politics as one of the great electoral mistakes and cautionary tales!
I think the public seem to understand that if you go into coalition you have to compromise but expect you to deliver something on your key policies.
By campaigning with a pledge and a photo LibDems made tuition fees a key point.
It was about the young, it was about a flagship policy and an essential part of our brand, aping what had been incredibly effective politically in Scotland. It was about progressive politics, our belief in education, social inclusion and mobility and also loved by middle class voters and mums and dads and grannies and grandpas too for that matter!
It seemed good politics humanising the rather dry business of key points and a costed programme - this was the vital emotional ingredient that told our story!
But, as Ed Milliband later said - it was naive to go with an out and out pledge!
What went wrong?
The LibDem leadership did scenario testing quite well in pre election preparation for potential coalitions. They considered the possibility that it the free tuition fees pledge may not be deliverable. From what I understand Clegg realised too late that it may not be deliverable and Danny Alexander felt there was
enough there of the policy they could deliver in spirit to go with. This means it was a mistake they ought not to have made.
Are they liars - no, of course not!
They achieved wider social inclusion and have improved the deal for more students from disadvantaged backgrounds than Labour or the Conservatives were proposing. And they got more resources put into early stage and pre-school education that wasn't there before.
There were too many dependencies to deal with to unravel tuition fees. The money wasn't there. The universities had been deprived of too much funding. The Brown commission came to recommend tuition fees. The Vice Chancellors want it. Labour and the Conservatives want it.
They tried, they made a difference for the good, they got rid of them in Scotland before - but they couldn't deliver on this this time. It is a slightly perverse irony that such a pile of excrement has fallen on the LibDem's head for fighting and failing - all because of the political mistake of making a policy a pledge and those photographs!
Clegg's mistake - which may indeed have been difficult to avoid as the difficulty in delivery became apparent at the 11th hour - means that being the FibDems is now part of the brand!
I fear in coalition you get associated with one thing. In Scotland this was Free tuition fees and then Free personal care for the elderly.
I fear that with this government the one big thing we are remembered for may be the tuition fees fail.
We need this one thing to be something else!
2 WHAT HAVE THE LIBDEMS DONE IN GOVERNMENT?
Well quite a lot it would seem!!
http://www.whatthehellhavethelibdemsdone.com/
Raising the Income Tax threshhold to reduce tax for the lower paid, take 880,000 of the poorest out of income tax altogether and to fundamentally shift our tax and benefits system to make work pay is a major achievement.
Introducing the Green Investment bank and mapping out our route to renewable energy and low carbon sources of energy is important and I hope will become a more substantial achievement as this parliament unfolds.
I rather like the achievements on prioritising Dementia research and expanding talking therapies for mental health illnesses.
But there needs to be more delivered.
We must be seen to make a difference with reining in poor NHS reforms - of acting as a check and a balance.
We must be seen to move to limit cuts if things go well and tax receipts improve and progress is made with reducing the deficit. We believe in public services and community after all. Cuts are a necessity for us to put us on an even keel - not an article of faith like with some Tories.
But what will our one big thing be?
"Read my lips, no new taxes" was the mantra quoted by George Bush Snr on the stump. I'm sure that was his intention but he couldn't deliver and this came back to crucify him 4 years later against Bill Clinton. I fear Free Tuition fees and the failure to deliver on that pledge may haunt the LibDems and Nick Clegg through this election cycle. I fear that may be our big thing we are remembered for!
We may yet make a difference!
Dr Eoin Clarke, historian, academic, and someone who is building quite a reputation as master of the data in his comments on Anthony Wells' UK Polling Report website reckons the LibDems will come back to poll ratings of 18%.
This would mean holding a lot of key seats but losing a few as well.
I feel we will eventually come back in this election cycle but damage will be done. Eoin is pretty objective as a psephological commentator and has an uncanny nack
No he doesn't have a crystal ball but he is Irish so may be in league with the faeries!
http://eoin-clarke.blogspot.com/2011/02/liberal-democrat-wipe-out-at-next.html
Where did we expect to be in the polls after deciding between red and blue and going into coalition with a tough agenda involving inevitable cuts. I thought in 2010 maybe 15% - not around 10-12% (and worse in Scotland and Northern England)
I hope we get over what we have done on tuition fees.
I hope we find 1 big thing that the LibDems are recognised for delivering in government.
Better still, I hope we find a classic list of 3 big things the LibDems are recognised as having delivered.
3 SCHADENFREUDE
I have been rather amused at the schadenfreude (love that word) or joy at the LibDem's misfortune permeating the blogosphere. You see it on Twitter and on the comments of blogs like UK Polling Report.
"The LibDems are liars and getting what they deserve". The natural order of progressive politics is being restored with Labour on 45% and rising with the LibDems facing oblivion. The reds can man the barricades to fight the evil old Etonians who care not for ordinary people preferring to persecute them while feathering their nests. A bit of a caricature perhaps but sometimes I wonder! It certainly seems to be a role some of the reds love to play!
Don't forget about 1/3rd of Labour's current doesn't particularly believe in Labour policy yet! Partly because they are split between those who would tackle the deficit and those who see no need to cut anything!! See my previous posting about the paradox of Labour and some of the polling on the Labour support.
The LibDems may yet get some of these people back
Spare a thought for the LibDems courage and what they are doing. See beyond tuition fees - which was a political mistake not dishonesty or having the wrong idea!
In Scotland the Scottish election platform from the LibDems is actually rather good!
The centrepiece of the plans is a £1.5 billion windfall, coming from making Scottish Water a public benefit corporation. It retains public ownership, by selling off the debt it owes the taxpayer so that it pays the public back for the money it's borrowed. This restructuring would give an immediate cash windfall of around £2.75 billion.
This would be invested for the long term - to create 100,000 jobs,
In addition:
- abolishing the Council Tax for pensioners on less than £10,000, paid for by reducing the pay bill for the highest earning public sector employees
- introducing a pupil premium to ensure that kids from poorer backgrounds don't lose out at school
- making sure business has the help it needs - with regional development banks providing investment
- plans for getting superfast broadband out there to all of Scotland - to make Scotland the most connected country in Europe
- investment in science
- keeping the free higher education, which the LibDems won in 1999 in Scotland!!
- opposing the political power grab to the centre, especially a single Scottish police force.
There remains very much a market demand for third party - a centrist party.
From what I read about the SNP, if Independence were achieved and the SNP broke left, right and centre, about 30% would break centre to Green or LibDem.
Some of the current Labour support could go LibDem if we remind them of why they used to like us.
However, we must beware the formulation of a special interest groups rainbow coalition - or of so called blue Labour - don't let Labour be receptacle for that - if we do Ed Milliband will have outflanked us and built his own Blairite coalition.
As LibDems we need to remember core ideas and be clear what we have done through government. This includes what we have stopped being done. This includes putting the brakes on the likes of Bill Cash and the Euro Sceptics!
Take me to the ball game!
It is a new ball game. There has been no coalition since the war - and that was wartime national unity. It is a new game with new rules. We should perhaps not get into a slavish adherence to cabinet responsibility. We owe a duty to be clear about what LibDems are arguing for in government and against. Yes, in government we must support the decisions that are made but I believe it is ok to have the party running arguments - on say whether we should have such high VAT - it is an honest approach.
We should not worry about being a punchbag by Labour supporters or the Daily Mail, or by getting lost in the quagmire of tuition fees - what's done is done!
We must now focus on deliverables and by getting out there with what we are trying to do! Olly Grender, Paddy Ashdown's Director of Communications, has argued as much in the New Statesman recently!
It is also important that we don't look like poodles and that Clegg doesn't look like Cam's fag!!
Remember the LibDems like us. The Conservatives think we are ok. It is Labour who hate us and they never supported us before!
As for ex LibDems - there must be some inevitable loss but if we deliver in government we will remind some of these voters why they liked us in the first place - at the next election cycle if not this one!
I still can't see the Greens on a reading of their current platform being a mass party. The market demand for the centre is very much there as is the scope for doing well with a leader who catches the popular imagination!
We must toughen up, not listen to those who partisanly wish our demise and deliver stuff!
Monday, 4 April 2011
Why I'm supporting AV
While there are a number of arguments and points being made by both the Yes and No sides I think the issue is actually very simple.
The FPTP system is undemocratic and produces an inaccurate result.
It works well in a two party scenario but we have not had that since the 1960s - over 40 years now.
We have LibDems but also important strands of political thought in UKIP and the Greens - and Nationalists in Scotland and Wales.
Only around a little over 60% voted Con or Lab last time!
A key argument for FPTP is it gives a clear result and as long as that is broadly in line with the vote that is pragmatic. Governments are scrutinised and accountable at elections every 4 or 5 years and at by-elections!
However, the results have for some time been too approximate or remote from the will of the people to be democratic. They are quite distorting and suppress new and important political movements coming through.
It seems to me the case for change is in fact overwhelming! Simply because both FPTP and the election results it gives are wrong!
The key reasons for no change are in fact inertia and conservatism.
AV is not the best solution but it is an improvement and all that can be agreed upon at this stage.
It is also a low risk change which will modify rather than radically change.
And that is why I will be voting Yes to AV!
Gavin
The FPTP system is undemocratic and produces an inaccurate result.
It works well in a two party scenario but we have not had that since the 1960s - over 40 years now.
We have LibDems but also important strands of political thought in UKIP and the Greens - and Nationalists in Scotland and Wales.
Only around a little over 60% voted Con or Lab last time!
A key argument for FPTP is it gives a clear result and as long as that is broadly in line with the vote that is pragmatic. Governments are scrutinised and accountable at elections every 4 or 5 years and at by-elections!
However, the results have for some time been too approximate or remote from the will of the people to be democratic. They are quite distorting and suppress new and important political movements coming through.
It seems to me the case for change is in fact overwhelming! Simply because both FPTP and the election results it gives are wrong!
The key reasons for no change are in fact inertia and conservatism.
AV is not the best solution but it is an improvement and all that can be agreed upon at this stage.
It is also a low risk change which will modify rather than radically change.
And that is why I will be voting Yes to AV!
Gavin
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The local elections were an unmitigated disaster for the LibDems in Edinburgh, where I live!
I scribed most of my thoughts on a comment on the Better Nation website, so I thought I would lay them out on my own blog.
We all knew this was coming a year ago. Things were always going to get worse for us before they get better and fighting locals as the lead party what with the Trams, some big budget challenges and LibDem group’s ‘talent’ for self promotion was likely to lead to another pasting.
Well, we got that, but it was slightly worse than I expected. I had hoped for 7 and feared for 4 – we got 3!
Interestingly, I don’t think the liberal (small l) vote has disappeared. In large part, it has gone Green and to the National Party of Scotland.
Places like Meadows, Fountainbridge and Stockbridge have always had an inbuilt liberal block. People who are in touch with their inner tank-top and eat vegetables. Since we have blotted our copy book it has helped the Greens get 6 councillors and some big wins.
The Nats are the opposition to Labour – there to give scrutiny and an alternative way to do things. I think Labour need that. As such they carry the responsibility of representing many who are cautious about how a Labour administration will perform.
So in a non tribal sense I don’t despair for our city.
I’ve been a Liberal for a long time and I’ve met in both taxis and in large halls. I had always felt things to be ok because the ‘market’ demand for a centre party was there. A pragmatic party with a perfect mix of individualism and collectivism, strong on the environment and civil liberties and positive about Europe and the need for effective devolution within the UK (Federalism even).
I’m a bit more worried this time – in Scotland at least. I saw the Greens come through in the late 80s but they faded. Today they are much more coherent, rounded and a mature proposition. I think they have potentially more staying power as we look jaded and yesterday’s party.
There has always been a strong place for a non socialist alternative to the Conservative party – that is in a nutshell what the LibDems were in the 20th century. The Nats and the LibDems (Alliance in the 80s) have ebbed and flowed around this one over the last 40 years – over time and over different regions of Scotland. Well currently the Nats have well and truly blocked us out of that one. It doesn’t help that we have blotted our left of centre copy-book with the coalition and everything that that involves during an era of global financial crisis.
The point is there isn’t really an opening there as the Nats are currently much more than just a nationalist party or the party of Independence.
So where does that leave us – in Edinburgh terms.
Well, I think we need to go back to our areas and form Focus action groups and get on with some of the things we do best – community action. We need to stay engaged and involved. I think in Edinburgh a core of activists and members will remain in the parts of the city where we have been strong.
For us in a lot of ways politics was re-booted 12 months ago. So we now put this behind us and move on. This means we can start to hold the big groups on the council to account. Including the Nats and the Greens as they represent the interests of liberal minded voters (amongst others of course).
We can free of being in administration during a difficult period promote our ideas for the city and constructive criticisms of what goes on.
I actually believe the LIbDems have done a lot of good across Edinburgh in recent years. The LibDem councillors increased nursery places and care for older people and started building houses again. They also increased recycling, and importantly sorted out the financial mess the city faced after the previous administration. (Leaving aside the costs associated with the Tram project).
In the manifesto the group put together they developed a lot of detailed and valuable thinking of where the city should go next and what the priorities are.
The point is that stump politicking or internet trolling aside there is some good thinking there to continue to contribute albeit as a depleted group and to continue to think and develop ideas is a key thing we should continue to do proudly.
I don’t know what is to come in the years ahead. The Nats may decline if they loose the referendum in 2014. They may face pressures and fissures between those who see independence as building a new socialist Utopia in Scotland and those who see themselves as an effective disciplined centre left alternative to Labour. Who knows.
The point is we have re-booted the computer and the LibDems should get out there and campaign in this city.